Fantasy 3B Analysis

Third Base

No position has experienced a fall quite like the 3B position in Fantasy Baseball. What was once a position that rivaled 1B in power performance has now been replaced by an overall depth chart littered with fading stars with a mere handful of budding youngsters poised to fill their shoes. Despite this rather steep decline, there are still serviceable options at the hot corner capable of providing quality production for their team managers.

The head of the class closely resembles the hierarchy from the previous season. Evan Longoria continues to tear through ML pitching and once again is the leading candidate to earn the fantasy crown for Fantasy 3B in 2011. Longoria possesses a 3 year career line of .283/.361/.881 with 24 HRs and 100 RBI per season and should be a solid bet to repeat those numbers this season. Behind him you'd be splitting hairs debating the two New York 3B in David Wright and Alex Rodriguez. Though both possess their own respective red flags, both should comfortably be looked upon to provide top 50 production and a solid overall 5 category line. Just finishing out the upper tier of 3B is a perennially under appreciated star in Ryan Zimmerman. A career .288/.355/.839 hitter with good power numbers year in and year out, the primary factors that keep Zimmerman from being a Fantasy Star is a combination of poor lineup protection and virtually no contribution in the SB category. Having just turned 26, the potential for Zimmerman to improve still exists, but at worse he should continue to put up numbers similar to his career averages.

As one moves further down the list is where we start to find the real question marks. There are numerous well known names to be found in this tier with names like Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, Mark Reynolds, Casey McGehee and more, but each admittedly have legitimate question marks surrounding their projections for 2011. The biggest though perhaps surrounds Jose Bautista and Aramis Ramirez and whether they will repeat their performance from the previous season, one good and one terribly bad.

Call me cynical, but 30 year old players who best their career high in HRs by 38 are not good bets to repeat said performance. Bautista had never topped 16 dingers in a season over 1700 career ABs, yet suddenly and without notice goes off to nail 54 and lead the MLs in HRs besting future HoF Albert Pujols by a healthy 12 HR margin. Don't get me wrong, I am not suggesting there aren't things to like about Bautista. I don't think a player is capable of hitting 50+ HRs in a season without having a legitimate power stroke (or weekly injections of Javy Lopez blood) and Bautista certainly will get every opportunity in regards to playing time in 2011.

Then on the other end of the spectrum you find Ramirez. Posting the worst line of his career since his long forgotten 2002 season, Ramirez could never find any sort of consistency in 2010 and really the only bright spot of his end season numbers were the 25 HRs he posted thanks in no small part to a nice 2nd half resurgence. Historically a lock for a .280/25/90 season, the .276/.321/.847 with 15HR and 50 RBI give hopes to a solid rebound in 2011, but injury concerns and regression due to age could very well begin what could be a steep decline in offensive numbers over the next few seasons. If you miss out on some of the safer options, Ramirez should at least be a solid consolation prize with upside to bounce back in a big way, though a .280/20/80 line might be a more realistic projection going forward.

Proceed with caution beyond this point as the list of options begins to dwindle very quickly. There are a few young hot corner candidates who may be primed for breakout years in Pedro Alvarez, Ian Steward, and David Freese, but my advice would be to let the less risk adverse owners be the ones who take that gamble. The best strategy when deciding upon a starting 3B for your squad would be a conservative approach and targeting the safer options as depth at the position deteriorates quickly.

Break Out:

Pedro Alvarez: No young 3B is more poised to have a breakout year than potential stud Pedro Alvarez. Since being drafted by the Pirates, Alvarez has quickly ascended the levels to find himself in the big leagues after only a year and a half in the minor leagues. After beginning the first part of the 2010 season at AAA Indianapolis, he posted a .277/.363/.896 line that earned him a callup to the big leagues. Though he struggled in his first full month, he flashed serious power potential belting 7 HRs in June and then finishing strong in the final month of the season in which he posted a mouth watering .306/.355/.932 line with 6 HR and an incredible 27 RBI.

Possessing a legitimate 30 HR stroke, Alvarez should pay dividends in the power department right off the bat. His biggest downfall is his inability to hit lefties, which is a familiar struggle for many a young LH bats. Chances are strong that Alvarez will get every opportunity to sink or swim against all but the toughest LH pitchers in 2011, so if he can even show a miniscule improvement in his overall approach against them, he could catapult himself into the cusp of the upper tiered 3B options for years to come. I'm going bold on Alvarez and predicting a .280/25/85 line from the young slugger.

Bounce Back:

Mark Reynolds: Many predicted that Mark Reynolds would experience a serious regression in 2010 after posting ridiculous numbers in a 2009 season which saw him belt 44 HR while also chipping in 24 SBs. Those are the kind of ratios that earn players top 5 pick status and it was no surprise when he failed to achieve those marks again in 2010.

Though a regression wasn't surprising, the extent of his decline was. Reynolds will always be a candidate to break his own record for strikeouts in a single season and defines the term "free swinger". However, while the strikeouts will likely prevent him from ever be a contender for a batting title, his finish below the mendoza line in 2010 is a bit of an aberration and there is no denying that the power he possesses is very real and his BB totals are actually quite solid. Moving to the Orioles in 2011, the lineup should at least be on par with the Diamondbacks and the move to the offense friendly AL could actually benefit him. Though I question his ability to ever come close to matching his incredible 2009 season, I would feel comfortable slotting him in at a .260/30/90 line with double digit steal totals, making him a quality option in an overall depth challenged 3B class.

The Champ:

Evan Longoria: Though it seems obvoius to select the consensus top ranked 3B in the fantasy realm and project him to be the fantasy king in 2011, I do so with lofty expectations. Few will argue that Longoria is a special talent. Breaking into the big leagues at 22, Longoria immediate became a formidable threat at the plate by belting 27 HR and an .874 OPS in his inaugural season earning him rookie of the year honors. Since then, he has remained quite consistent in his overall approach despite some fluctuation in his HR totals posting a .889 and .879 OPS in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

Entering into his age 25 season, Longoria is finally entering what is generally perceived to be his physical prime and with his overall approach the potential for a boost in power numbers is very real. Despite losing the luxury of hitting with Carl Crawford and a sometimes useful Carlos Pena, the Rays should still possess a formidable offensive unit with the additions of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. With RBI opportunities remaining solid and sufficient lineup protection offered by Ramirez, Longoria should at a minimum match his 2010 line, however, I am very bullish on his skill set and project that he escalates himself into one of the truly elite hitters in the MLs in 2011. Perhaps a bit optimistic, I project Longoria to boast a more than healthy .290/35/120 line and being a top contender for the MVP award in the upcoming season.

The Chump:

Adrian Beltre: Many nasty things have been said when discussing Adrian Beltre's offensive capabilities. An abundance of baseball fans want to label him the classic contract year player and clearly his 2004 season is exhibit A of that discussion. However, what many miss is that Beltre is about as consistent an offensive player as there is at 3B, which is a good but not great offensive talent.

Beltre has belted 20+ HR in all but 4 of his 12 ML seasons since becoming a full-time player. The problem with Beltre is that some will be drafting him in 2011 expecting a repeat of his incredible 2010 totals in which he had an MVP caliber All-Star season and managed a .321/28/102 line for the Boston Red Sox, the 2nd best of his career in each respective category. Though an argument could be and have been made that moving out of Safeco was the largest proponent to his sudden spike, one simply cannot ignore his career totals and expect him to have suddenly transformed himself into one of the game's elite hitters. In the end, I believe that his 2011 season will fall almost right in step with that of his historical means and a .275/25/85 season seems a pretty solid bet, which will likely disappoint those who draft him with a high pick.