Fantasy SP Analysis

Starting Pitcher

MLB has made some interesting shifts over the years and when analyzing the 2011 SP class one could make an argument that a new ERA of dominant pitching is now upon us.

This year's crop is incredibly strong with the upper tier not only being impressive in the quality of its pitchers, but the amount of depth in the top tier as well. The big 3 going into the 2011 season appears to be Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, and Tim Lincecum. Rightfully so because each man possesses the kind of talent that is capable of winning a Cy Young award if health doesn't derail any of their respective seasons. But really I think a person could make a legitimate debate that there are about a dozen other arms who could each have as much a chance to win the award for top pitcher in the league as the top 3 do. You'd have to find some pretty compelling evidence to argue against names like Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, and Chris Carpenter. Each of these veterans have the historical evidence of dominance as well as a good enough supporting cast to contend for the SP crown.

Looking further, the 2011 class also features some of the most impressive young talents that you will ever find in the game at one time. Between the wealth of young stars in Francisco Liriano, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, and Josh Johnson to the even younger Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Tommy Hanson, Mat Latos, and Yovani Gallardo you have a group of options who all have the talent to be a bonafide ACE for most ML clubs.

From this point on is where the true measure of the depth that this year's class possesses is showcased as there are plenty of quality options to be found, though possesses a bit more risk than with the options at the upper tiers. With players like Jonathan Sanchez, Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, Ricky Romero, and CJ Wilson you have players who surprised Fantasy Owners by each having breakout seasons in 2010. Also in this range you will find quality veterans options like Wandy Rodriguez, Ervin Santana, Tim Hudson, Ted Lilly, and Hiroki Kuroda who might lack the upside that higher ranked options might possess, but should all post solid numbers across the board in their own regard.

And for those who like to take some risks, you will find plenty of names towards the bottom of the rankings of players who once were top tiered starters in their own regard. If you are in need of a homerun pick and are willing to take the risk, you could find a nice surprise landing a player like Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, James Shields, John Lackey, or Javier Vazquez. Each are only a year or two removed from being incredibly production players and each could still regain some of that success if the stars align. League are often won with the sort of risk/reward value that guys in this category can bring, but one must choose carefully and build a pitching staff that isn't too heavily reliant upon such risky propositions.

Overall the 2011 class is certainly not lacking in quality or quantity, but because of that the emphasis on landing at least 4 quality starters becomes that much more important. It might be prudent to take one of the elite options and then filling out your staff with safe reliable options rather than taking too many gambles on bounce back or young unproven arms. Whichever way you choose please just take a moment to appreciate the wealth of talent that we are seeing at the ML level as there is no telling when a shift back to the long-ball may take place.

Break Out:

Max Scherzer: Though showing flashes of brilliance since he made his debut with Arizona in 2008, Scherzer has yet to put it all together over the course of an entire season to realize his full potential. With excellent stuff, Scherzer has always been a solid contributor in the strikeout totals averaging right at a K per inning over his career. Inconsistency and at times spotty command has been his biggest downfall, though his BB/9 has steadily decreased every year, leading to optimism for the coming year.

In reality, Scherzer's overall numbers for the 2010 season were actually quite solid overall though a very slow start to the season actually skew how brilliant he really was in the 2nd half. In fact, his first two months of the season were so bad that Detriot sent him down to AAA on a temporary assignment in hopes of him righting the ship, and that is exactly what he did. Following being called back up to the big leagues, Scherzer was one of the more dominant pitchers in the game, posting a 2.47 ERA and just over 8 K/9.

If he carry this momentum over into the 2011 season, Scherzer has the ability to be a real steal if you are able to land him as your 3rd or 4th starter as 200 K pitchers who post solid numbers in all other categories are not overly abundant. If Detroit's offense will score runs for him an increase in win totals should also trend upwards. I feel a giant breakthrough coming for Scherzer in 2011 to the tune of 15 Wins, 200 Ks, and a ERA around 3.25.

Bounce Back:

Dan Haren: It's really difficult to nail down what exactly was the cause of Haren's initial struggles in 2010. Despite posting high strikeout totals throughout the season, the only consistency that Haren was able to find during the 1st half of the season was that he was consistently bad and it was evident as he disappointed owners with an abnormal 4.00+ ERA. It wasn't until Haren was acquired by the Angels at the trade deadline that he begin to find his groove that owners are so accustomed to.

Normally moves from the NL to the AL don't equate to a boost in production, but for Haren the move to a contender certainly led to a striking increase in his 2nd half performance. A perennial threat to top the 200 K mark, Haren posted one of the better post All Star breaks of his entire career to the tune of a 2.87 ERA and 75 Ks during the 2nd half. Though his record was only 5-4, an improved LAA squad should provide better run support for Haren along with solid defense in 2011 and thus an increase in his win total should certainly be expected.

Look for Haren to return to his typical dominant self in 2011 and finishing in the top 10 in Ks for the season. A line of 15 Wins, 210 Ks and a healthy ERA of around 3.4 would be a solid projection as Haren reestablishes himself amongst the upper tier of SPs.

The Champ:

Tim Lincecum: It is really hard to find anything negative to say about "The Freak". At only 26 years of age, Lincecum already has 2 Cy Young awards and 3 NL Strikeout crowns to his name. In short, he is the most dominant strikeout pitcher that the game has seen since Randy Johnson.

When looking at his career numbers, one could point to 2010 and say that Lincecum had a "down" year, in which he posted an ERA nearly a run more than his previous two seasons and failing to top the 260 K mark for the first time in 2 years. When a 3.43 ERA and 231 Ks are considered struggling, then you are looking at a player who is exceptionally special.

Even if Lincecum's numbers do regress from his brilliant 2008-2009 totals, at worst you are still looking at a top 5 SP who is going to carry your team with his impressive K numbers. If he stays healthy, Lincecum should once again be an absolute stud frontline SP for your squad and a 17 Win, 240 K, 3.10 ERA season with aspirations for a 3rd Cy Young award are in his future.

The Chump:

Ubaldo Jimenez: There is a certain amount of consideration that must be taken with this pick, just because it would have been far too easy to have picked Carlos Silva to be this year's dog starter. Please understand that I don't mean to suggest that Jimenez will be awful in 2011, just that there is a very real chance he fails to live up to the expectations that a incredible 2010 will likely bestow for him.

In fact, I think it is fair to simply look at the splits when trying to establish what sort of performance you should expect from Jimenez in 2011. Possessing a fantastic repertoire of pitches, he has fantastic swing and miss stuff and thus will likely be a solid bet to exceed the 200 K mark again. What troubles me with Jimenez is the sometimes erratic command of those pitches. Walking 92 batters last season, he missed tying Jonathan Sanchez for the league lead by a mere 4 BBs. Luckily, having the ability to strike out opposing hitters has helped to minimize the damage that the free passes might have caused, however, those periods of spotty command have the potential to blow up when combined with the friendly boost that Coors' Field bestows upon offensive players.

Overall Jimenez should still be looked upon as a solid #3 starter for fantasy teams due to the high K totals, but do not buy him high with the expectations of a repeat sub 3.00 ERA and 19 Wins that he posted in 2010. A far more realistic projection would probably lie somewhere near the totals he had in the 2nd half of the season and I'l project him to be a 15 Win, 210 K pitcher with an ERA hovering near 3.50 to finish the season.

Fantasy OF Analysis

Outfield

Simply put, there is no other position in fantasy baseball in 2011 that offers more power speed combinations than that of the outfielder position with 26 players posting double digit totals in both HR and SB categories. Among those 26, there were 6 whom posted 20+/20+ HR/SB ratios easily making it the strongly power/speed position in the draft.

Simply put, the 2011 Fantasy Outfielder crop is phenomenal. No other position offers the amount of cumulative star potential, depth, and potential breakout talent that you will find with this group.

Though Ryan Braun stands as the safest bet amongst your elite talents, the list of players who fill out the top tier of the OF are all remarkable in their floor projections as well as their potential. We saw in 2010 the sort of 5 category impact that a young player like Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Upton, and Andrew McCuthchen could have for fantasy owners. We also have extensive historical data available to suggest that the floor production for players like Carl Crawford, Matt Holliday, and Ichiro Suzuki continue to put them in the elite production category.

As well as the safe bets, you will also find a handful of bounce back candidates who could very well return to fantasy relevance. Once great fantasy studs like Carlos Beltran, Magglio Ordonez, and Grady Sizemore look to try to right their careers by finally staying healthy for a full season. Players like Johnny Damon, Andruw Jones, and Raul Ibanez will attempt to disprove those who say that their careers are in their twilight phases. There are certainly some very recognizable names amongst this group, many of whom could be very productive in 2011. However, no player of these characteristics quite have the upside that Manny Ramirez possesses. Battling injuries in 2010, Manny must prove that he still has the ability to be a top of the line run producer. Hitting in the heart of the Tampa Bay order will certainly provide him with the oppurtunities, but whether Manny still possesses the power that once made him such a dangerous weapon is yet to be seen. Regardless of which option you choose, proceed with caution as each has their own respective question marks surrounding their 2011 seasons.

As well as your all-around contributors, OF offers the most extensive selection of base pilfering specialists of any position. If you happen to nab a pair of power hitting IFs early in your draft and are lacking contributors to the SB categories, you'll find a wealth of options available from some of the best in the game in Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn to some of the lesser known speed demon youthful options in Brett Gardner, Drew Stubbs, Austin Jackson, and Denard Span. If you are the type to punt SBs in favor of HR and RBI early, then there are plenty of options available amongst the OFs to sufficiently balance out your team.

Though the list of established veterans found in the 2011 class are impressive, perhaps the truly intriguing aspect of the position can be found in the potential breakout candidates. In all my years as a fan I have yet to see a year when more young talent was poised to make their mark on the big leagues as there appears to be in 2011. We all know how great Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen can be, but you may want to get to know several other names very soon. While not household names, there is serious star potential to be found when looking at Mike Stanton, Dominic Brown, Colby Rasmus, Mike Trout, Dexter Fowler, and Desmond Jennings, to name a few. Each of these players has the potential to be big time contributors to their respective ball club by mid-season with some being fully primed to make their impact known on opening day. This class has the potential to generate a handful of All-Stars who each could find themselves in the upper tiers of fantasy OF rankings as soon as 2012. Though it would be a gamble, you could hit it big to pass on some of the higher ranked stars in lieu of solidifying other positions and taking some homerun swings on some of these young talents.

With the sheer amount of talent available in the 2011 OF pool, every team should be able to land a solid trio to insert into their starting lineup, however, keep an eye out on the young talent as their ascension into the elite tier could happen before your very eyes.

Break Out:

Jay Bruce: In a year where there are a wealth of young outfielders on the verge of stardom, Jay Bruce looks to make the kind of breakout impact that Carlos Gonzalez did a season ago. Blessed with incredible natural talent as well as a above average plate approach for his age, Bruce already boasts the kind of power stroke that General Managers drool over having posted more than 20 HRs in each of the 3 seasons of his young tenure.

Bruce's primary weakness during 2008-2009 were his struggles against LH pitchers, where he managed just a .562 and .643 OPS and a meager 5 HRs in nearly 250 ABs. Bruce adjusted in a huge way in 2010 and excelled against both LH and RH pitching equally and as a result had an incredible breakout, in which he posted career highs across the board.

At only 23 and with an incredibly high ceiling, Bruce is no where near growing as a player. Though a repeat of his 2010 numbers would still place him comfortable in the middle tiers of fantasy OFs in 2011, Bruce is the kind of budding star that can finish as a top 20 player if he reaches his potential. In a lineup with Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs, and 2010 MVP Joey Votto there will be plenty of opportunities to score and drive in runs. I'm predicting huge things for Bruce and projecting a .290/32/100 line and being in the discussion for NL MVP come year's end.

Bounce Back:

Nick Markakis: It's hard to say what went wrong for Markakis in 2010. Consistency has always been one of his most valuable assets and there are no real weaknesses in his plate approach. However, the most noticeable outlier from last season's stats would be his struggles against RH pitching. A career .299/.377/.854 hitter against RHs, in 2010 Markakis saw his line dip to an unusual .269/.351/.762 finish.

In addition to the odd 2010 splits vs. RHs, Markakis also saw his HR totals take a bit of a dive. Though HRs have never been his strongest attribute, Markakis should still be looked upon to hit 15-20 per season. Adding some key offensive pieces to the lineup in 2011 should help as well. The Orioles completely revamped their lineup by adding veterans Derek Lee, Mark Reynolds, JJ Hardy, as well as a suddenly reenergized Vlad Guerreo this offseason. If Baltimore can get Brian Roberts healthy as well as the 2nd half version of Adam Jones, then the Orioles could possess a surprisingly capable offensive unit in 2011 in which Markakis will find himself at the top of. Though one should not expect any sort of incredible breakthrough, Markakis should at least trend back to his career averages and a .300/20/100 season looks to be a very attainable projection.

The Champ:

Nelson Cruz: Always an immensely talented player, Cruz has finally started to translate his incredible raw talent into tangible on the field production. A legitimate 5 tool beast, Cruz has the ability to be one of the best players in all of baseball and showed it in 2010.

Coming over to Texas in the Carlos Lee trade, Cruz destroyed MiL pitching from day 1, but struggled mightily during extended stints at the ML level and was placed on waivers prior to the 2008 season. After destroying AAA pitching throughout most of the 2008 season, Cruz was finally given another shot for the big league club and excelled in limited ABs posting a 1.030 OPS to finish the season. From there Cruz has done nothing but perform when healthy, and health has been the only roadblock to him putting up an MVP caliber season.

Multiple hamstring injuries limited Cruz to only 400 ABs in 2010. Despite missing significant time, he still went on to post a .318/22/78 season with 17 SBs and a .950 OPS. In 2011, Cruz looks to finally stay healthy and produce those numbers over an entire season which would profile him as a legitimate threat to be one of the MLs only 30/30 players. Additionally, he'll be provided with a wealth of RBI opportunities hitting behind Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre and could finally break the 100RBI mark for the first time of his career.

Relying on Cruz to stay healthy is a risky proposition for certain, but I'm betting on him reaching 550 ABs and thus reaching a line of .290/35/100 with 25 SBs.

The Chump:

Vernon Wells: There are at times players who (despite having great careers) will channel their inner youth and have one final stellar year before returning to their regression trend of the previous few seasons. Though Wells is only 32 years old and still has plenty of years left to be a positive contributor in his future, production years like 2010 are likely nothing but distant memories from hereon out.

In 2010 Wells shocked the league and was one of the league's most dangerous power hitters in the 1st half of the season with 19 HRs and 49 RBI, finishing with 31 and 88 respectively. Though a quality offensive threat, Wells had experienced a quite significant regressive trend from 2007-2009 in which he only reached 20 HR once and failed to top 80 RBI in any of those seasons.

During the offseason, Wells was the primary piece in a big acquisition in which he was acquired by the Angels. Though its debatable which team had a better offense, chances are good that the Angels will be able to put plenty of base runners on the diamond when Wells is up to bat and a repeat of 80+ RBI is not too much of a stretch, but the historical evidence strongly suggest that Wells is highly unlikely to reach the 30 HR mark again in the foreseeable future. Wells certainly has the potential to be a useful 3rd OF, but anything more than a .280/20/80 season would be a bit too rosy a picture for my tastes.

Fantasy 3B Analysis

Third Base

No position has experienced a fall quite like the 3B position in Fantasy Baseball. What was once a position that rivaled 1B in power performance has now been replaced by an overall depth chart littered with fading stars with a mere handful of budding youngsters poised to fill their shoes. Despite this rather steep decline, there are still serviceable options at the hot corner capable of providing quality production for their team managers.

The head of the class closely resembles the hierarchy from the previous season. Evan Longoria continues to tear through ML pitching and once again is the leading candidate to earn the fantasy crown for Fantasy 3B in 2011. Longoria possesses a 3 year career line of .283/.361/.881 with 24 HRs and 100 RBI per season and should be a solid bet to repeat those numbers this season. Behind him you'd be splitting hairs debating the two New York 3B in David Wright and Alex Rodriguez. Though both possess their own respective red flags, both should comfortably be looked upon to provide top 50 production and a solid overall 5 category line. Just finishing out the upper tier of 3B is a perennially under appreciated star in Ryan Zimmerman. A career .288/.355/.839 hitter with good power numbers year in and year out, the primary factors that keep Zimmerman from being a Fantasy Star is a combination of poor lineup protection and virtually no contribution in the SB category. Having just turned 26, the potential for Zimmerman to improve still exists, but at worse he should continue to put up numbers similar to his career averages.

As one moves further down the list is where we start to find the real question marks. There are numerous well known names to be found in this tier with names like Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, Mark Reynolds, Casey McGehee and more, but each admittedly have legitimate question marks surrounding their projections for 2011. The biggest though perhaps surrounds Jose Bautista and Aramis Ramirez and whether they will repeat their performance from the previous season, one good and one terribly bad.

Call me cynical, but 30 year old players who best their career high in HRs by 38 are not good bets to repeat said performance. Bautista had never topped 16 dingers in a season over 1700 career ABs, yet suddenly and without notice goes off to nail 54 and lead the MLs in HRs besting future HoF Albert Pujols by a healthy 12 HR margin. Don't get me wrong, I am not suggesting there aren't things to like about Bautista. I don't think a player is capable of hitting 50+ HRs in a season without having a legitimate power stroke (or weekly injections of Javy Lopez blood) and Bautista certainly will get every opportunity in regards to playing time in 2011.

Then on the other end of the spectrum you find Ramirez. Posting the worst line of his career since his long forgotten 2002 season, Ramirez could never find any sort of consistency in 2010 and really the only bright spot of his end season numbers were the 25 HRs he posted thanks in no small part to a nice 2nd half resurgence. Historically a lock for a .280/25/90 season, the .276/.321/.847 with 15HR and 50 RBI give hopes to a solid rebound in 2011, but injury concerns and regression due to age could very well begin what could be a steep decline in offensive numbers over the next few seasons. If you miss out on some of the safer options, Ramirez should at least be a solid consolation prize with upside to bounce back in a big way, though a .280/20/80 line might be a more realistic projection going forward.

Proceed with caution beyond this point as the list of options begins to dwindle very quickly. There are a few young hot corner candidates who may be primed for breakout years in Pedro Alvarez, Ian Steward, and David Freese, but my advice would be to let the less risk adverse owners be the ones who take that gamble. The best strategy when deciding upon a starting 3B for your squad would be a conservative approach and targeting the safer options as depth at the position deteriorates quickly.

Break Out:

Pedro Alvarez: No young 3B is more poised to have a breakout year than potential stud Pedro Alvarez. Since being drafted by the Pirates, Alvarez has quickly ascended the levels to find himself in the big leagues after only a year and a half in the minor leagues. After beginning the first part of the 2010 season at AAA Indianapolis, he posted a .277/.363/.896 line that earned him a callup to the big leagues. Though he struggled in his first full month, he flashed serious power potential belting 7 HRs in June and then finishing strong in the final month of the season in which he posted a mouth watering .306/.355/.932 line with 6 HR and an incredible 27 RBI.

Possessing a legitimate 30 HR stroke, Alvarez should pay dividends in the power department right off the bat. His biggest downfall is his inability to hit lefties, which is a familiar struggle for many a young LH bats. Chances are strong that Alvarez will get every opportunity to sink or swim against all but the toughest LH pitchers in 2011, so if he can even show a miniscule improvement in his overall approach against them, he could catapult himself into the cusp of the upper tiered 3B options for years to come. I'm going bold on Alvarez and predicting a .280/25/85 line from the young slugger.

Bounce Back:

Mark Reynolds: Many predicted that Mark Reynolds would experience a serious regression in 2010 after posting ridiculous numbers in a 2009 season which saw him belt 44 HR while also chipping in 24 SBs. Those are the kind of ratios that earn players top 5 pick status and it was no surprise when he failed to achieve those marks again in 2010.

Though a regression wasn't surprising, the extent of his decline was. Reynolds will always be a candidate to break his own record for strikeouts in a single season and defines the term "free swinger". However, while the strikeouts will likely prevent him from ever be a contender for a batting title, his finish below the mendoza line in 2010 is a bit of an aberration and there is no denying that the power he possesses is very real and his BB totals are actually quite solid. Moving to the Orioles in 2011, the lineup should at least be on par with the Diamondbacks and the move to the offense friendly AL could actually benefit him. Though I question his ability to ever come close to matching his incredible 2009 season, I would feel comfortable slotting him in at a .260/30/90 line with double digit steal totals, making him a quality option in an overall depth challenged 3B class.

The Champ:

Evan Longoria: Though it seems obvoius to select the consensus top ranked 3B in the fantasy realm and project him to be the fantasy king in 2011, I do so with lofty expectations. Few will argue that Longoria is a special talent. Breaking into the big leagues at 22, Longoria immediate became a formidable threat at the plate by belting 27 HR and an .874 OPS in his inaugural season earning him rookie of the year honors. Since then, he has remained quite consistent in his overall approach despite some fluctuation in his HR totals posting a .889 and .879 OPS in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

Entering into his age 25 season, Longoria is finally entering what is generally perceived to be his physical prime and with his overall approach the potential for a boost in power numbers is very real. Despite losing the luxury of hitting with Carl Crawford and a sometimes useful Carlos Pena, the Rays should still possess a formidable offensive unit with the additions of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. With RBI opportunities remaining solid and sufficient lineup protection offered by Ramirez, Longoria should at a minimum match his 2010 line, however, I am very bullish on his skill set and project that he escalates himself into one of the truly elite hitters in the MLs in 2011. Perhaps a bit optimistic, I project Longoria to boast a more than healthy .290/35/120 line and being a top contender for the MVP award in the upcoming season.

The Chump:

Adrian Beltre: Many nasty things have been said when discussing Adrian Beltre's offensive capabilities. An abundance of baseball fans want to label him the classic contract year player and clearly his 2004 season is exhibit A of that discussion. However, what many miss is that Beltre is about as consistent an offensive player as there is at 3B, which is a good but not great offensive talent.

Beltre has belted 20+ HR in all but 4 of his 12 ML seasons since becoming a full-time player. The problem with Beltre is that some will be drafting him in 2011 expecting a repeat of his incredible 2010 totals in which he had an MVP caliber All-Star season and managed a .321/28/102 line for the Boston Red Sox, the 2nd best of his career in each respective category. Though an argument could be and have been made that moving out of Safeco was the largest proponent to his sudden spike, one simply cannot ignore his career totals and expect him to have suddenly transformed himself into one of the game's elite hitters. In the end, I believe that his 2011 season will fall almost right in step with that of his historical means and a .275/25/85 season seems a pretty solid bet, which will likely disappoint those who draft him with a high pick.