Fantasy SS Analysis

Short Stop

To suggest that the SS position is lacking in talent would be analyzing the 2011 crop with an overly sunny disposition, at best. Competing with the C position as the only group that looks to offer less across the board in regards to production, this year's class looks to offer just a couple of elite talents, followed by a group of solid veteran options, and then a wealth of 1-2 category contributors who are severely lacking in other areas.

Sitting firmly at the head of the class are Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki. Both are very good 5 category contributors and both are solid bets to repeat their elite production levels. Really the primary characterstic that separates the two is that Han-Ram has a history of stealing more bases whilst Tulowitzki has driven in more runs. They should put up a quite similar line in Runs, BA, and even HR and both should easily finish among the top 50 overall players, battling all season long for the rights to the Fantasy SS crown. With the position being as scarce as it is, if you are presented the opportunity to draft one of these two, do so with confidence.

Immediately following the elite duo we find some very familiar names who look to be solid contributors in 2011, albeit not the 5 category kings that their 1st tier counterparts look to offer. Truth be told, your choice between Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, and Jose Reyes will likely be based upon what particular stat you are chasing. Reyes and Rollins surprisingly profile very similarly. Neither are going to kill your BA but certainly won't impact it in a positive manner. Also, Rollins offers more pop while Reyes has a much higher potential to rack up a wealth of SBs. Jeter is a safer play if you are looking for solid contributions across the board. Though last season was a bit of a down year, especially regarding his BA, Jeter is still a much better overall hitter than his 2010 season stats would suggest and thus should at worst be the projected floor of his production hitting atop what looks to once again be a very good NY Yankees lineup.

Beyond this point there are many more question marks than safe bets. Alexei Ramirez, Stephen Drew, and Rafael Furcal each possess the potential to be positive contributors, but inconsistency, a poor lineup, and health concerns raise red flags upon each candidate respectively. Ramirez likely has the most upside of this group as a guy who possesses the talent to post a 20/20 season, but chances are that he is what he is at this point. Hitting at the top of the White Sox lineup should provide him with plenty of opportunities to run and to score runs whilst also providing solid HR and RBI numbers.

The 2011 class also on the surface looks to lack any significant depth, however, there are a handful of young players who could look to make an impact given the full-time opportunity. Players such as Elvis Andrus, Ian Desmond, Alcides Escobar and Starlin Castro look to make a name for themselves, but none really project to be impact bats and will contribute more with their speed on the base paths than in overall power numbers. Though if you miss out on the veteran options and want to take a gamble, each offer interesting upside.

Perhaps the best strategy to employ when selecting a SS in 2011 is just to select a player who offers a skill that fits with your overall roster. Chances are solid that whatever SS you end up will offer potential double digit SB totals so if you are able to land a player who also offers positive contributions in another category or 2, then you will have done well.

Break Out:

Starlin Castro: Young players who aren't completely overwhelmed at the ML level are impressive. 20 year olds who hit .300 during their inaugural season are potentially special. Many were surprised that Castro even got the call up at such a young age, but from the word go he shattered everyone's expectations and never hit the slump that everyone expected him to undergo. Posting solid splits vs. RH and LH as well as a solid doubles stroke (31 in only 463 ABs) Castro should be a good bet to improve upon his Run totals hitting atop the potent Cubs lineup. Castro should also improve upon his SB totals as he gains experience.

While not much of a power threat and still a little green on the base paths, any expectations of a immense breakout season should be tempered a bit as he still has a lot of room to grow physically and opposing pitchers will now have plenty of tape to try to find some weaknesses in his game which could result in a slight dip in his BA. However, when SS is so devoid of depth overall, a player who is capable of providing solid contributions in both BA and SB while posting solid Run totals should provide plenty of value. I'd be comfortable projecting a .280/5/50 season with 80+ Runs and around 15 SBs. If you miss out on the safer veteran options, I strongly endorse targeting Castro as your plan B.

Bounce Back:

Jimmy Rollins: It's hard to really know type of production you are going to get from Jimmy Rollins on a year to year basis. The early glimpses of a stud 5 category SS we witnessed in the beginning stages of his career seem to be long gone, but that doesn't mean that Rollins cannot still contribute to your fantasy team. Hitting leadoff in what certainly projects to be a very good Phillies' lineup, Rollins should once again rack up quality numbers in Runs and SBs, but the question year in and year out revolves around what he produces in BA and HR.

Throughout his career Rollins has experienced quite extreme peaks and valleys revolving around his BA ranging from a high of .296 in an MVP caliber 2006 season to a head-scratching .243 in an injury played 2010. I think a safe median would suggest that he is probably a .275 hitter with decent splits against both LH and RH, but again he has been such an enigma during his career that he could certainly surprise one way or another.

His power numbers have been equally hard to predict throughout his career. It is safe to say that Rollins possesses very good pop as he racks up the 2Bs yearly, but the issue always becomes how many of those 2Bs ultimately leave the park since most leagues don't tally 2Bs in their scoring settings. I wouldn't even bet on Rollins reaching his career high 30 HR mark ever again, but he is absolutely capable of posting 20 HR. While I am optimistic overall on his 2011 season, I think his bounce back will be good but ultimately limited. I'd project him to pst a .265/16/70 line in 2011 while giving owners a minimum of 30 SBs. Draft with confidence.

The Champ:

Troy Tulowitzki: The only thing holding Tulowitzki back from being one of the top producers in the entire MLs regardless of position is health. Injuries have significantly limited the Rockies' SS in 2 of the last 4 seasons. However, despite missing time he still somehow manages to put up great numbers. Even after logging a month of the 2010 season on the DL, he still bested Han-Ram in 2B, HR, RBI, and Total Bases despite logging nearly 100 less ABs. In fact he was even stronger after the injury than before posting a .938 OPS in August and simply ridiculous 1.120 OPS in September.

At 26, Tulowitzki is a legitimate .300 hitter with terrific power and is just entering the prime of his career. Realistically at this point his yearly averages should serve merely as his production floor and could even improve if he is ever able to improve his production on the road (.790 OPS on the road vs. .926 at home). He also is hitting in one of the league's most hitter friendly park and is firmly penciled in behind emerging star Carlos Gonzalez in what should be an overall solid Colorado Rockies lineup and thus should have little trouble once again putting up elite offensive numbers. Obviously one must always be cognizant of the injury concerns that surround Tulowitzki, but even if he misses a few games, he should still eclipse all other contenders in production and is a legitimate bet to log .300/30/90 from a paper thin 2011 SS class.

The Chump:

Juan Uribe: At 31 Uribe spent the majority of the 2010 season at SS in addition to being the Giants' most versatile utility player. Posting career highs in both HR and RBI he was surprisingly one of the biggest contributors in an otherwise weak San Francisco lineup and was 2nd to only Aubrey Huff in both catergories. While the power wasn't a complete surprise as Uribe is easily a perennial threat to best the 15 HR mark, it would be a mistake to rely upon him repeating the 24 that he produced last season. It is also difficult to get too excited about the HR totals when he is such a burden upon your .BA/.OBP (.256/.300 career) and does absolutely nothing to contribute in steals at a position where SBs are overall abundant.

Entering 2011 Uribe looks to start in what should be a solid LA Dodgers offensive unit and will remain eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS making him one of the best versatile infielder options in Fantasy Baseball. If you happen to miss out on all the upper tiered SS options, then Uribe can be a bearable starting option, however, proceed with caution when selecting Uribe as you don't want to make the mistake of paying for last year's stats. I'd project a .250/15/60 line from Uribe.

Fantasy 2B Analysis

Second Base

The 2B position has really transformed from that of a source for light-hitting base-stealers to a legitimate power position. What used to be a quite top-heavy positional hierarchy has been supplanted instead with what is actually a quite deep pool of fantasy contributors. Additionally the 2B position has candidates who offer quite a vast array of different skill-sets ranging from your HR launching Dan Uggla to your speed-demon base terrorizing Chone Figgins.

The 2B position also offers a handful of multi-faceted power/speed threats with roughly 5-10 players offering potential double digit totals in HRs and SBs. This class is headlined by perennial fantasy elite names such as Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, and Rickie Weeks.

Top billing of the 2011 class should remain the usual cast. Chase Utley was limited by injuries in 2010, but shouldn't be a big concern as he posted a monstrous September hitting .323 and posting a .967 OPS. While his career has been steadily trending downward since his incredible 2007 season, he still looks capable of putting up a more than healthy .285/30/100 line with 10+ SBs, putting him comfortably in the top tier of the 2B pool of players.

Competing with Utley will be Yankee budding star and 2010 breakout player Robinson Cano. The book on Cano has always been consistent. He is a player who will provide plus contributions in batting average combined with the rewards in Runs and RBI totals that hitting in the Yankee lineup provide. In 2010 he added a sudden surge of power that, while unexpected, doesn't look to be a fluke. Cano has always been a doubles machine averaging 40 per season since his inaugural 2005 campaign. One could argue that he really broke out in 2009 when he hit a then career high 25 HRs and posted a .871 OPS, but made the leap to ML stardom in 2010 posting an MVP like 29 HRs and a .914 OPS. He is as safe a bet as there is and his 2009 numbers should be considered his floor at this point.

In the 2nd tier you will find a wealth of quality options. Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, all look to bounce back from an injury plagued 2010 while Rickie Weeks looks to solidify his place at this level. Approach each with caution as Pedroia's ankle injury could serious limit his bas stealing threat and Kinsler and Weeks are both always a solid bet to miss an extended amount of time on the DL. When they do play each are capable of rewarding fantasy owners with double digit HR and SB numbers, so adjust your expectations accordingly.

The class becomes a bit murky when analyzing the list of players that have had quality seasons in the past but failed to live up to their expected production in 2010. Players like Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, Aaron Hill, and Ben Zobrist fill up this group as they all managed to miss their projected totals by a wide margin last season. Each carry very real question marks entering 2011 as to whether they can bounce back to their former stature or not. Roberts and Figgins must battle father time, while Hill and Zobrist must make adjustments to their respective approaches to increase their efficiency at the plate. These question marks make for interesting risk/reward selections and could provide quality production if you happen to miss out on the upper echelon talents. Despite being a class that lacks an abundance of low risk options, as a whole this year's 2B class looks to be surprisingly deep and should provide owners with good across the board production in 2011.

Breakout:

Gordon Beckham: The hype machine ran at maximum capacity entering the 2010 season. Beckham killed minor league pitching and held his own throughout his ML stint in the 2009 season, so expectations were high that a significant improvement was in order entering 2010, potentially even placing him amongst the fantasy elite. The expectations (combined with a position switch to 2B) were just too much though. Beckham was completely overmatched the first 3 months of the season and looked as if he might need a refresher stint back at AAA. However, the White Sox stuck with him and were rewarded with a huge July and August from Beckham in which he posted a .950 and .931 OPS respectively.

The midseason breakout is encouraging, but the caveat remains for potential owners to temper their expectations again in 2011. Chances are that Beckham will continue to experience periods where he flashes the All-Star hitting potential that he possesses, but those will be mixed with periods of struggle as he has to adjust to ML pitching. If Beckham ever hopes to become a fantasy elite 2B, the strikeout numbers will have to decrease and the BBs will need to trend upward. However, if you are the type that appreciates a good gamble, Beckham is certainly a very strong risk/reward candidate. I'm predicting a mini-breakout to the tune of .280/20/80, with the potential for more.

Bounce Back:

Aaron Hill: The list of potential 2B bounce back candidates was quite plentiful. However, when measuring 2010 Performance vs. 2011 Projection, the biggest gap in my mind lies with Aaron Hill. Overall, Hill had a completely miserable 2010 season. Hitting in what proved to be a high octane Toronto lineup, one could easily have projected that Hill would only benefit from the protection that his fellow teammates provided. Yet, somehow, Hill just never could get on track. Though he managed to hit 28 HRs in 2010, he only managed to hit over .200 in 2 months the entire season and eclipsed the .700 OPS mark once.

A career .270 hitter with legitimate 25+ HR power, the steep decline was a shocker amongst the majority of the fantasy community. Though he should never been considered a threat to post a .300 BA over the course of a season, he certainly shouldn't be reduced to a guy who struggles to hit above the mendoza line. I would estimate a resurgence more closely resembling his career .270 mark whilst also being fully capable of maintaining the HR stroke in 2011. A projected line of .270/23/85 would place him back into the ranks that he formerly occupied.

The Champ:

Dan Uggla: I almost can't believe I am writing this. Since his 2006 rookie season in which Uggla seemingly came from nowhere to hit 27 HRs and 90 RBI, Uggla has been the most prolific power threat at 2B in the MLs topping 31 HR in every following season (Uggla never topped 21 HRs at AA or AAA during his MiL career). I admit I was never a believer, as I awaited the low BA and high K numbers to eventually catch up to him and result in a career of mediocrity. Trust is, if one looks closer at his season by season trends you will find that Uggla as an overall hitter has improved while maintaining the power stroke that has solidified his reputation as one of the games most under appreciated power threats.

For Uggla, 2011 looks incredibly bright. The move from Florida to Atlanta places him in a better ball park, a better lineup, and a much more favorable competitive atmosphere. At worst Uggla looks to remain a lock to repeat a line similar to his historical average, but I am going even further with it and predicting an increase in his overall line. Put me down for Uggla reaching .280/35/100 this season and entering into the top tier of Fantasy 2B in future years.

The Chump:

Rickie Weeks: A part of me think that they only reason Weeks broke out in 2010 the way that he did was only so that he could let his supporters down again in 2011. For years Weeks teased owners with an incredible amount of fantasy 5 category potential that hinted at him becoming a perennial 25HR and 25SB beast, and each year he struggled to make the kind of impact that his supporters had hoped for.

After an injury shortened 2009 that saw him only appear in 37 games, his bandwagon was becoming quite desolate. He responded by having a career year and increasing his HR and RBI totals by nearly double his previous career highs. The secret to this sudden boost is likely attributed to the fact that he logged nearly 200 more at bats than any other season before. My analysis is not to suggest that he does not possess the talent to repeat this performance, but rather that his ability to stay healthy for an entire season is highly unlikely and thus his overall totals will suffer as a result. If you have a quality reserve that you are comfortable inserting when Weeks spends time on the DL then you may target him and play him when healthy, but I see a regression back a .260/17/60 player that will undoubtedly break the hearts of those who spend a high selection on him.

Fantasy C Analysis

Catcher

As immensely deep as the 1B position is fantasy-wise in 2011, the catching position can be found on the complete other end of the spectrum. The position is very top heavy and after your elite options the talent level takes a sizable plunge. The elite options remain Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, and Brian McCann with the young stud Buster Posey looking to solidify his place after an incredibly surprising inaugural season. While none of them are likely to provide you elite production across the board relative to the offensive juggernauts at other positions, they all should be head and shoulders above the field amongst their peers.

Behind the elite options are some potential breakout and bounce back candidates as well as a few solid, yet unspectacular, veteran backstops. You essentially know what you are going to get by selecting Jorge Posada, John Buck, A.J. Pierzynski, and the likes as each have extensive history to draw from. None should be counted upon to provide any sort of consistent offensive production. However, if you miss on one of the top options then this is the year where you take a gamble on a guy who has flashed incredible potential yet struggled with consistency such as Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki, or Miguel Montero, or to go all in with the pedigreed minor-league phenoms in Carlos Santana and Matt Wieters.

When drafting a backstop in 2011, it is important to remember that even the highest ranked catcher's stats will likely pale in comparison to the top producers at other positions. Be conscious of the amount of trade off that you might forfeit statistically by selecting an elite catcher as opposed to a 2nd tier player at another position as the difference between the two could be vast when judged by a strictly statistical analysis.

Breakout:

Matt Wieters: Immense talent has never been lacking with Wieters, however, as is often the case with young up and coming talents, he was overhyped and failed to live up to incredibly lofty expectations. In his brief 3 year career he has had immense pressure placed upon him, has been smack dab in the middle of a very poor Baltimore lineup, and has struggled mightily against LH pitchers

All that being said, there are things to like about Wieters. There is little doubt that Baltimore is going to give Wieters every chance to develop at the ML level, and the Baltimore offense should be much improved with the additions of Vladimir Guerrero and Mark Reynolds. A realistic floor should be around his 2 year career averages of 10/50/.266, however, due to his pedigree the possibility is there for his light to finally come on in his 3rd season. Owners who haven't given up on Wieters should be rewarded this season with a minor breakthrough. I'm cautiously optimistic in projection a 15/65/.270 season from Wieters with a distinct possibility for much much more.

Bounce Back:

Miguel Montero: Better late than never right? Many expected that this was going to happen in 2010 after belting 16HR and posting a .832 in 2009, but unfortunately a knee injury derailed his entire season early on and he never quite managed to get on track. The good news is that his 9/43/.266 line in 331 ABs is still significantly better than the majority of other catching options and projected over the course of an entire season would easily put him in the running to be one of the top overall backstops in the league.

While there is reason for optimism, the reality is that the Diamondbacks offense is likely to be mediocre at best and that he'll get the usual amount of rest as a catcher, however, with an emerging superstar in Justin Upton and an underrated yet functional Kelly Johnson getting on base ahead of him, he should be provided with enough RBI opportunities to provide well above average at catcher. Temper your expectations, but be thrilled with a 22/80/.275 campaign in 2011.

The Champ:

Victor Martinez: If the topic were best catcher in the MLs, then Joe Mauer is without question the best all around catcher in the bigs, however, when discussing fantasy baseball there are many other factors to consider and defensive prowess isn't one of them. Victor Martinez is one of the premier offensive backstops of the past decade. A legitimate .300 hitter who is equally adept at hitting both LH and RH pitching, Martinez also offers above average power and good plate discipline from the catcher position.

Perhaps the real reason to give the crown to V-Mart in 2011 is that when he is not catching he should be in the lineup as a DH thus he'll likely play every day, which is a rarity for catchers in today's game. Moving from Boston to Detroit will likely create a slight drain on his HR totals, but he should stick rack up his fair share of doubles, and as long as he is driving runners in it shouldn't negatively affect his RBI totals. I think one could reasonably predict a 17/90/.310 season placing him at or near the top of the catcher pool.

The Chump:

John Buck: Buck had a career year in 2010 without question, reaching career highs in doubles, HRs, RBI, Batting Average, and On-Base Percentage. A player having a career year in a contract year is hardly a rare occurrence (Javy Lopez hit 43 HR in 2003... 43 HR!!!!) and Buck certainly cashed in this offseason to the tune of $18M over 3 years. However, moving from a potent Toronto offense to a Florida squad that consists of Hanley Ramirez and little else is not going to do any favors to his output.

Buck's greatest asset is that he is capable of providing above average power at the position. However, with 6 years of evidence to draw from all signs with Buck point towards a one year fluke in 2010 and a steep drop off to his career mean. Given the lack of talent at the position Buck is certainly worth owning as he will be THE man at catcher for the Marlins, but just don't base your selection off of last year's stats. Look to history and expect a .245/12/55 season.

Fantasy 1B Analysis

First Base

As is usually the case, 1B will once again be the deepest position that you will find in the realm of fantasy baseball. I believe one could easily make the argument that there are 7 elite 1B options in Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Mark Teixeira each of whom could top 30/100 if healthy, and really that is just the floor. Ryan Howard has surpassed 130RBI 4 of the past 5 seasons. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are both perennial Triple Crown threats. Joey Votto is fresh off a 2010 campaign that earned him the NL MVP award. Each of these mashers are going to provide elite production and could vie for their respective league's MVP honors in 2011.

Once all of the top tier 1B are off the board, there still remains an incredible pool of talented options available. When you can call players such as Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn, Justin Morneau, and Paul Konerko consolation prizes, it is easy to see the immense amount of depth that 1B provides. With a little luck each of these players could also conceivably put up the kind of numbers that could earn them MVP honors. Morneau already has one and Youkilis and Konerko both have the prowess and a favorable situation to produce MVP type numbers.

In addition to known commodities, the 2011 1B crop also offers quite a few potentially attractive names in the middle tiers with formers greats like Carlos Lee, Carlos Pena, Derek Lee, and Lance Berkman available. Though each player's respective prime years are behind them, is it not unfathomable to conclude that a bounce back could await multiple members of this group. Truth be told with so many suitable options to be found and with most standard leagues consisting of between 10-12 teams, no team manager should be left wanting when it comes to 1B in 2011.

Breakout: Billy Butler: Butler has all of the tools to be an elite fantasy 1B, yet despite a fantastic hit tool and more than adequate raw power, the HRs just haven't quite started to add up. He showed signs of breaking through in 2009 when he belted 21 HRs and 51 doubles, but regressed in 2010 with only 15 and 45. Butler profiles to be a legitimate .300 hitter and his patience has improved every season. He is just now entering his age 25 season so there is still hope. He has been a doubles machine over the past 2 years and could conceivably become a perennial 25+HR threat. Put me down as a believer that he begins that trend this season and I would bank on a 25/100/.310 campaign for Butler in 2011.

Bounce Back: Kendry Morales: Morales was en route to fantasy stardom before a freak (and exceptional strange) injury ended his 2010 season. Always a sensationally talented player, he put things together in a huge way in 2009 and easily looked to be one of the brightest talents at 1B in the MLs. An all around good hitter who is capable of hitting for average and 30+HR power is a nice find even at 1B. In 2010 he was right back on track for a 35HR season when he fractured his leg during celebrations at home plate. Given the nature of the injury he should be 100% healed in 2011 and it is unlikely the type of injury that should linger in any way. I am confident that he'll get right back on the path to stardom hitting in the middle of a solid LAA lineup. Look for a .290/35/115 line for Morales in 2011.

The Champ: Adrian Gonzalez: You really can't go wrong with most of the elite names, but I'm predicting that this year we'll see Adrian Gonzalez ascend to a fantasy beast. Gonzalez is not new to the fantasy elite, but he has been forced to play half of his games in arguably the worst hitter's park in the entire MLs though you wouldn't know it by looking at his stats. In 2011, he moves to not only one of the more hitter friendly parks in the MLs, but also into an immensely talented lineup. The new park should lead to a nice boost in HR and being in the middle of a lineup that includes Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 40/130/.300 line and MVP discussions for Gonzalez in 2011.

The Chump: Carlos Pena: In year's past you could overlook the batting average as his power numbers more than made up for his lack of consistent hits. In reality, his numbers were very much on par with the HR launching Adam Dunn, especially if playing in a league that values .OBP. However, over the past 4 years Pena's batting average has plummeted on a very concerning downward spiral. Dropping from .282 in 2007 to .247 in 2008, .227 in 2009, and finally an embarrassingly atrocious .196 in 2010 one has to have serious concerns that something is wrong with Pena's swing and/or approach at the plate. The HR stroke was still there as 28 of his mere 95 total hits were HRs, but the lack of any other consistent offense sapped his RBI numbers, totaling only 84 in 2010. A move to a much friendly hitter's park in Chicago could lead to a slight bounce-back, but with all the other terrific options available at 1B, you should steer clear of Pena in 2011. I'd project him to be a .230/25/75 guy in 2011.