Fantasy SP Analysis

Starting Pitcher

MLB has made some interesting shifts over the years and when analyzing the 2011 SP class one could make an argument that a new ERA of dominant pitching is now upon us.

This year's crop is incredibly strong with the upper tier not only being impressive in the quality of its pitchers, but the amount of depth in the top tier as well. The big 3 going into the 2011 season appears to be Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, and Tim Lincecum. Rightfully so because each man possesses the kind of talent that is capable of winning a Cy Young award if health doesn't derail any of their respective seasons. But really I think a person could make a legitimate debate that there are about a dozen other arms who could each have as much a chance to win the award for top pitcher in the league as the top 3 do. You'd have to find some pretty compelling evidence to argue against names like Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, and Chris Carpenter. Each of these veterans have the historical evidence of dominance as well as a good enough supporting cast to contend for the SP crown.

Looking further, the 2011 class also features some of the most impressive young talents that you will ever find in the game at one time. Between the wealth of young stars in Francisco Liriano, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, and Josh Johnson to the even younger Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Tommy Hanson, Mat Latos, and Yovani Gallardo you have a group of options who all have the talent to be a bonafide ACE for most ML clubs.

From this point on is where the true measure of the depth that this year's class possesses is showcased as there are plenty of quality options to be found, though possesses a bit more risk than with the options at the upper tiers. With players like Jonathan Sanchez, Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, Ricky Romero, and CJ Wilson you have players who surprised Fantasy Owners by each having breakout seasons in 2010. Also in this range you will find quality veterans options like Wandy Rodriguez, Ervin Santana, Tim Hudson, Ted Lilly, and Hiroki Kuroda who might lack the upside that higher ranked options might possess, but should all post solid numbers across the board in their own regard.

And for those who like to take some risks, you will find plenty of names towards the bottom of the rankings of players who once were top tiered starters in their own regard. If you are in need of a homerun pick and are willing to take the risk, you could find a nice surprise landing a player like Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, James Shields, John Lackey, or Javier Vazquez. Each are only a year or two removed from being incredibly production players and each could still regain some of that success if the stars align. League are often won with the sort of risk/reward value that guys in this category can bring, but one must choose carefully and build a pitching staff that isn't too heavily reliant upon such risky propositions.

Overall the 2011 class is certainly not lacking in quality or quantity, but because of that the emphasis on landing at least 4 quality starters becomes that much more important. It might be prudent to take one of the elite options and then filling out your staff with safe reliable options rather than taking too many gambles on bounce back or young unproven arms. Whichever way you choose please just take a moment to appreciate the wealth of talent that we are seeing at the ML level as there is no telling when a shift back to the long-ball may take place.

Break Out:

Max Scherzer: Though showing flashes of brilliance since he made his debut with Arizona in 2008, Scherzer has yet to put it all together over the course of an entire season to realize his full potential. With excellent stuff, Scherzer has always been a solid contributor in the strikeout totals averaging right at a K per inning over his career. Inconsistency and at times spotty command has been his biggest downfall, though his BB/9 has steadily decreased every year, leading to optimism for the coming year.

In reality, Scherzer's overall numbers for the 2010 season were actually quite solid overall though a very slow start to the season actually skew how brilliant he really was in the 2nd half. In fact, his first two months of the season were so bad that Detriot sent him down to AAA on a temporary assignment in hopes of him righting the ship, and that is exactly what he did. Following being called back up to the big leagues, Scherzer was one of the more dominant pitchers in the game, posting a 2.47 ERA and just over 8 K/9.

If he carry this momentum over into the 2011 season, Scherzer has the ability to be a real steal if you are able to land him as your 3rd or 4th starter as 200 K pitchers who post solid numbers in all other categories are not overly abundant. If Detroit's offense will score runs for him an increase in win totals should also trend upwards. I feel a giant breakthrough coming for Scherzer in 2011 to the tune of 15 Wins, 200 Ks, and a ERA around 3.25.

Bounce Back:

Dan Haren: It's really difficult to nail down what exactly was the cause of Haren's initial struggles in 2010. Despite posting high strikeout totals throughout the season, the only consistency that Haren was able to find during the 1st half of the season was that he was consistently bad and it was evident as he disappointed owners with an abnormal 4.00+ ERA. It wasn't until Haren was acquired by the Angels at the trade deadline that he begin to find his groove that owners are so accustomed to.

Normally moves from the NL to the AL don't equate to a boost in production, but for Haren the move to a contender certainly led to a striking increase in his 2nd half performance. A perennial threat to top the 200 K mark, Haren posted one of the better post All Star breaks of his entire career to the tune of a 2.87 ERA and 75 Ks during the 2nd half. Though his record was only 5-4, an improved LAA squad should provide better run support for Haren along with solid defense in 2011 and thus an increase in his win total should certainly be expected.

Look for Haren to return to his typical dominant self in 2011 and finishing in the top 10 in Ks for the season. A line of 15 Wins, 210 Ks and a healthy ERA of around 3.4 would be a solid projection as Haren reestablishes himself amongst the upper tier of SPs.

The Champ:

Tim Lincecum: It is really hard to find anything negative to say about "The Freak". At only 26 years of age, Lincecum already has 2 Cy Young awards and 3 NL Strikeout crowns to his name. In short, he is the most dominant strikeout pitcher that the game has seen since Randy Johnson.

When looking at his career numbers, one could point to 2010 and say that Lincecum had a "down" year, in which he posted an ERA nearly a run more than his previous two seasons and failing to top the 260 K mark for the first time in 2 years. When a 3.43 ERA and 231 Ks are considered struggling, then you are looking at a player who is exceptionally special.

Even if Lincecum's numbers do regress from his brilliant 2008-2009 totals, at worst you are still looking at a top 5 SP who is going to carry your team with his impressive K numbers. If he stays healthy, Lincecum should once again be an absolute stud frontline SP for your squad and a 17 Win, 240 K, 3.10 ERA season with aspirations for a 3rd Cy Young award are in his future.

The Chump:

Ubaldo Jimenez: There is a certain amount of consideration that must be taken with this pick, just because it would have been far too easy to have picked Carlos Silva to be this year's dog starter. Please understand that I don't mean to suggest that Jimenez will be awful in 2011, just that there is a very real chance he fails to live up to the expectations that a incredible 2010 will likely bestow for him.

In fact, I think it is fair to simply look at the splits when trying to establish what sort of performance you should expect from Jimenez in 2011. Possessing a fantastic repertoire of pitches, he has fantastic swing and miss stuff and thus will likely be a solid bet to exceed the 200 K mark again. What troubles me with Jimenez is the sometimes erratic command of those pitches. Walking 92 batters last season, he missed tying Jonathan Sanchez for the league lead by a mere 4 BBs. Luckily, having the ability to strike out opposing hitters has helped to minimize the damage that the free passes might have caused, however, those periods of spotty command have the potential to blow up when combined with the friendly boost that Coors' Field bestows upon offensive players.

Overall Jimenez should still be looked upon as a solid #3 starter for fantasy teams due to the high K totals, but do not buy him high with the expectations of a repeat sub 3.00 ERA and 19 Wins that he posted in 2010. A far more realistic projection would probably lie somewhere near the totals he had in the 2nd half of the season and I'l project him to be a 15 Win, 210 K pitcher with an ERA hovering near 3.50 to finish the season.