It's June 28th, the Rangers are in 1st place in the AL West and a game behind the New York Yankees for 1st place in the entire ML with a 46-29 record. Despite a similar place in the standings last season (they were 40-35 thru 75 games in 2009) the Rangers go into today's off day 4.5 games ahead of the reigning AL West Pennant Winning Los Angeles Angels in contrast to being down 2.5 a year before.
As usual, the Rangers offense is clicking on all cylinders. With young hitters Julio Borbon and Justin Smoak finally breaking out of early season struggles, the Rangers are getting exceptional offensive production from every part of the lineup aside from the catcher position. However, what makes this year different from years past is the incredible strides that the team has made in both the starting rotation and bullpen. Offense can sell tickets, but pitching and defense are what wins pennants.
The bullpen has been exceptional led by Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, Frankie Fransisco, and young closer Neftali Feliz. Historical data is available to suggest that the success of the bullpen is sustainable. Feliz lacks the experience, but has been unhittable (maintaining a .152 career BAA and a .082 WHIP) at the ML level since he was first called up at the end of the 2009 season.
However, the rotation is a bit of a different story. The Rangers rotation is littered with "pleasant surprises" this season. Certainly even the most successful starters have their fair share of question marks. CJ Wilson has never been a starter before, Colby Lewis is attempting a phoenix like resurrection into the MLB, Tommy Hunter is still incredibly young and unproven, and Scott Feldman has to prove if 2009 was a trend or fluke. To question whether they can sustain their current production is acceptable, so long as one does not discount what they have managed to do thus far in 2010. Certainly one would consider the lot of them to be at worst above average back of the rotation candidates. Which leads to the most notable concern that the Rangers have this season... a legitimate arm at the top of the rotation.
Much has been discussed on this topic as the Rangers have been continuously linked to Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee in recent trade rumors. The likelihood of the Rangers acquiring either player is going to rest upon whether new ownership can be brought in prior to the MLB Trade Deadline on July 31st (which truth be told at this point looks questionable at best). Financially, Roy Oswalt is going to be completely unnattanaible as MLB Owners will not approve allowing the Rangers to take on an additional $20MM liability until ownership is settled, however, the team could afford to acquire Cliff Lee who is only under contract for the remainder of the 2010 season. However, with at least 8 other contending teams likely to be bidding for his services the price tag in terms of prospects (of which the Rangers value at a premium) is likely going to be a bit steeper than they will ultimately want to pay.
Truth be told I think many Ranger fans are going to be disappointed by the Rangers being neither buyers or sellers at the deadline. I certainly think the team will attempt to find a RH reserve player capable of playing 1B/3B/cOF, but may just elect to fill that role internally via a player like Ryan Garko.
So assuming that the team is relegated to standing pat as the deadline approaches, the question becomes... can they compete for the AL Pennant in 2010? The answer (for me at least) is an optimistic maybe. Unfortunately the team is going to have to rely on their unproven rotation and perhaps even (gulp!) Rich Harden to carry them the rest of the way. The offense will score runs, the defense will continue to be acceptable, and the back end of the bullpen should continue to be dependable... which in my view at least guarantees that the Rangers will be competitive down to the wire, but if the Angels are able to acquire an impact bat before the deadline, their experience and past success in August and September are going to be a tremendous asset in their favor.
Nolan Ryan predicted a 92 win season for the Rangers in 2010 which I certainly feel is entirely attainable at this point. Whether or not 92 wins is enough to clinch the AL West has yet to be seen.
