Just a Little Crush?

Ranger Nation is in full scale panic mode after the announcement by Jon Daniels that 2010 AL MVP and Batting Champion Josh Hamilton will likely miss up to 8 weeks after suffering what is being described as a non-displaced fracture of the humerus bone after trying to score from 3B on an infield popup behind home-plate. Though Hamilton had yet to hit a HR thus far in 2011, he still represented one of the most prolific overall hitters in the Rangers' entire lineup and substituting his abilities both offensively and defensively will ultimately be impossible. However, what's done is done and the Rangers now must prepare a contingency plan to best supplement the lineup now that Hamilton is out. So how is this best done given the options that are available?

The answer is simple, regarding the defense at least. History suggests David Murphy is the primary candidate to fill a full-time cOF role if an injury were to occur to Hamilton or Cruz, and chances are strong that he'll do just that during Hamilton's DL stint. Then, replacing Murphy in the 4th OF spot would be Mitch Moreland's new secondary role in addition to being the full-time 1B. This all seems simple enough thus far, however, things really get a bit murky when discussing who takes over at 1B/DH in those situations when Moreland does line up in the OF.

One part of the equation seems easy enough. When facing a LH pitcher, Mike Napoli will play 1B with Michael Young being the #1 DH option (and sometimes vice-versa). Moreland gets all of the starts against RH pitching as he has done nothing but impress so far this season. So you then have Mitch Moreland playing vs. all RH pitchers with Napoli/Young getting their usual number of ABs at 1B/DH when Moreland lines up in the OF. Problem solved right? But wait.... Almost immediately following the news that Hamilton would miss an extended period of time, the news comes out that the Rangers will replace his roster spot with none other than the enigmatic AAA titan Chris Davis.... which blows the previous entire analysis all to hell.

The book on Davis is well read by most devoted Rangers fans. He posts super human power numbers in AAA and Spring Training every year, but has failed to consistently adjust to ML pitching and begins striking out at record setting rates. The potential is still there as Davis is only 25 years old and has always flashed incredible raw power to go along with surprisingly terrific 1B defense. He's never been much of an On-Base guy and his BB:K ratios will always make any statistician uneasy, but a GG caliber 1B who is capable of hitting 40HRs per year still has immense value even if the BA and OBP numbers don't jump off the charts. Despite 2 failed ML auditions, the Rangers still seem to be very optimistic about his future and refuse to sell-low on him despite his dwindling MiL options (1 remaining). One could easily envision the Rangers front office wanting (at some point) to give Davis one last "come hell or high-water" crack at becoming a ML regular in hopes that he catches fire. Davis having success at the ML level gives the Rangers an incredible amount of flexibility both as a trade chip and as a replacement for Michael Young if a viable trade comes along. Everyone in the organization wants Davis to get that shot and to succeed in it, but certainly not at the cost of the team's best hitter. But now that the time is upon us and given the current structure of this team, the question now becomes "how does Davis fit into the gameplan NOW"?

The answer is not so simple. The easiest and most logical use of Davis' skills would be as a LH platoon at 1B as he has relatively good splits against RH pitching, most notably in the power areas. But with Moreland being a LH and already exceeding early expectations and showing the plate approach of a 10 year veteran, there is just no way that Davis and his extensive red flags can or should bump Moreland on any sort of a regular basis. You could move Moreland to LF against RH pitchers, but then you are taking Murphy's (another LH who hits RH pitching well) production out of the equation in favor of Davis and his checkered history against ML pitching. DH isn't an option on most nights because Michael Young has to play somewhere and despite his flaws is still a known quantity vs. the gamble that Davis presents. And playing time against LH shouldn't even be considered at this point given Davis' putrid splits against lefties.

So with all these scenarios reflecting a situation where Davis may get only a handful of ABs every week, how does he even fit on the ML roster? Without question, the biggest hole in the Rangers' roster is now backup CF. Murphy will likely be that guy now, but his range still leaves plenty to be desired. To me the most logical call-up would be Craig Gentry as a pinch runner and defensive specialist (he is terrific at all the OF spots). Wouldn't it even have been more prudent to bring up Taylor Teagarden as an "emergency catcher" in order to get Napoli (who is off to a torrid start against both LH and RH thus far) more ABs without having to worry about being stuck without a catcher? Or even to bring up Engel Beltre (who is already on the 40 man) as a strictly Defensive CF/Pinch Runner to give him a taste of what it is like to be a ML and be around those caliber of players as a humbling experience? Bringing up Davis only serves to make an incredibly crowded 1B/DH position that much more saturated and does little to provide Davis with much needed ABs to (hopefully) fine tune his craft.

One would think that the Rangers and Jon Daniels have a plan in place already, but as it currently stands, consider me to be confused as hell as to how this will all play out. I guess we shall see soon enough how he fits into the equation.

A Run Saved is a Run Not Earned... or Un-Earned

The reigning 2010 World Series runners up are off to a tantalizing start in 2011. Though the pitching as a whole entered the season as the team's biggest red flag, throughout 8 games it has been surprisingly steady with perhaps the least likeliest duo of all in Matt Harrison and Alexi Ogando both making key contributions to kick off the season. Though sample size should always be heavily weighed this early into a fresh season, the results from the pitching staff have been encouraging, but the real question remains "can it continue?" Though there are certainly reasons to doubt this, I believe that there are some several factors that exists to support the notion.

Easily the most intriguing story to unfold in the 2011 season is the shape of the pitching staff (no the Michael Young "tantrums" and trade demands do not count as intriguing). Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan knew there were very real concerns surrounding the starting rotation and the noticeable lack of a true "Top of the Rotation Pitcher", herein referred to as TORP, and made aggressive attempts to land such talents as Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, and in what I can conclude as a shear desperation attempt in Matt Garza. Though some would claim that any price tag was worth the return on investment we would receive in a season that should without question be tagged as "Win Now", the Rangers front office ultimately passed on each option determining that the asking price and the long-term implications it could have on the franchises resources were simply too steep. The debate will surely flare up at any point during this season if the starting pitching stumbles but hindsight will always be in perfect clarity and what's done is done.

Which leaves us to where we are now. As it stands, the regular rotations for this year's squad will likely end up being CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, and Tommy Hunter with Alexi Ogando ultimately moving back into the bullpen that is desperate for an 8th inning RH stopper. It doesn't take Buster Olney to see that this group possesses a ton of question marks. We still aren't sure exactly what we have in CJ and Colby as each have only 2010 results as evidence to support their standings. Tommy Hunter is solid but lacks true upside and without dominating raw "stuff" will at times get knocked around if his command falters even a bit. Matt Harrison looks fantastic now, but we've seen this bit before where he will shut down opposing teams for 3-4 starts and then just completely lose it. The champagne for Holland's breakout party has been on ice for several years now and despite flashing true brilliance, he has yet to find the sort of consistency in both performance and health to make him a true TORP. When looking at the group as a whole you certainly see a staff that despite its questions, has immense potential if they are ever able to put it all together. Though the potential for great things exist, in a season in which the window to win a championship is as wide as it may ever be, you can see why the front office would have liked to have acquired at least one "sure-thing" to put somewhere into the rotation.

However, the truth is that just about every team has these same concerns, and because of that it isn't as if there are a dozen TORP flooding the Free Agent market every season allowing every potential contender to acquire one. It is because of this that it becomes so important for a team to build from within and develop their own talents, and if you know anything about the "Jon Daniels Strategy" over the past few years you will know that the Ranger's have made this an essential part of their overall player personnel strategy. We're already seeing the dividends of this on the major league club with players like Feliz and Andrus amongst others. The excitement that goes hand in hand with a young talent ascending from a prospect to a producer certainly is compelling, but again this is a "Win-Now" squad. There is alot of risk involved with relying on young players making the adjustments to succeed at the Major League level. Jon Daniels knew this when formulating his plan and certainly recognized it going into the 2011 season. And with the Ranger's being unable to land the sort of talent like Cliff Lee that can stabilize and give credibility to any rotation, Daniels focused on the one area that he could make an impact at... Defense.

It's importance is an oft debated topic and there are numerous metrics used in these discussions to support or dismiss its value. But in a common sense approach, its hard to deny that "Runs Saved" are equally important as "Runs Scored". And with this in mind, the Rangers have assembled what looks to not only be good, but a potentially great defensive unit. Though casual fans, some national media members, and Michael Young's ego were oblivious to it, the fact simply exists that Young's defense at 3B (and really anywhere in the field at this point) is substandard. The defensive metrics support this just as much as the eye-ball test supports it. He has become a liability at what is a very essential defensive position and his offensive output simply is not substantial enough to justify remaining status quo. So with the market being dearth of TORP options, Jon Daniels went out and acquired the only premium 3B Free Agent available in Adrian Beltre. Without crapping too much on Michael Young (who I do, as a fan, like very much) its hard to emphasize enough just how vast of an upgrade Adrian Beltre will be over Young at 3B for the next 3 years. In just 8 games this season we have already witnessed arguably 2-3 plays that Beltre has made on balls that would have found a way past Young and pro-longed innings for our pitchers. Just to further emphasize this point in case it wasn't clear, but Adrian Beltre is one of (if not THE) best defensive 3B in the game over the past decade and it is those sort of plays that he is able to make that are going to be a huge asset in allowing our SP to go deeper into games more consistently.

So when you combine Beltre's elite range at 3B with Andrus' freakish range and every improving consistency at SS you have arguably the best Left Side of an infield that exists in the Big Leagues. Combine that with an outfield of Hamilton, Borbon, and Cruz and Torreabla behind the dish and you have a strong overall defensive unit that creates a very comforting environment for a young pitcher to flourish in, and success breeds confidence which is essential for young talented arms to trust their respective ability and reach their true potential. The defense has the potential to be so good, in fact, that we may see breakout season's from both Derek Holland and Matt Harrison which would be an incredible boon to the Rangers' short and long term ability to contend.

So when watching, please give the defense its due when it makes a routine out, because what is a routine play for talents like Beltre and Andrus could be a seeing eye single for other teams... and if we are to lay to rest the questions and concerns to currently exist regarding our starting rotation, the quality of the defense this season is going to be essential in alleviating those concerns.

P.S. Michael Young will be the first player in MLB History to win a Gold Glove at DH... just so ya know.