Fantasy OF Analysis

Outfield

Simply put, there is no other position in fantasy baseball in 2011 that offers more power speed combinations than that of the outfielder position with 26 players posting double digit totals in both HR and SB categories. Among those 26, there were 6 whom posted 20+/20+ HR/SB ratios easily making it the strongly power/speed position in the draft.

Simply put, the 2011 Fantasy Outfielder crop is phenomenal. No other position offers the amount of cumulative star potential, depth, and potential breakout talent that you will find with this group.

Though Ryan Braun stands as the safest bet amongst your elite talents, the list of players who fill out the top tier of the OF are all remarkable in their floor projections as well as their potential. We saw in 2010 the sort of 5 category impact that a young player like Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Upton, and Andrew McCuthchen could have for fantasy owners. We also have extensive historical data available to suggest that the floor production for players like Carl Crawford, Matt Holliday, and Ichiro Suzuki continue to put them in the elite production category.

As well as the safe bets, you will also find a handful of bounce back candidates who could very well return to fantasy relevance. Once great fantasy studs like Carlos Beltran, Magglio Ordonez, and Grady Sizemore look to try to right their careers by finally staying healthy for a full season. Players like Johnny Damon, Andruw Jones, and Raul Ibanez will attempt to disprove those who say that their careers are in their twilight phases. There are certainly some very recognizable names amongst this group, many of whom could be very productive in 2011. However, no player of these characteristics quite have the upside that Manny Ramirez possesses. Battling injuries in 2010, Manny must prove that he still has the ability to be a top of the line run producer. Hitting in the heart of the Tampa Bay order will certainly provide him with the oppurtunities, but whether Manny still possesses the power that once made him such a dangerous weapon is yet to be seen. Regardless of which option you choose, proceed with caution as each has their own respective question marks surrounding their 2011 seasons.

As well as your all-around contributors, OF offers the most extensive selection of base pilfering specialists of any position. If you happen to nab a pair of power hitting IFs early in your draft and are lacking contributors to the SB categories, you'll find a wealth of options available from some of the best in the game in Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn to some of the lesser known speed demon youthful options in Brett Gardner, Drew Stubbs, Austin Jackson, and Denard Span. If you are the type to punt SBs in favor of HR and RBI early, then there are plenty of options available amongst the OFs to sufficiently balance out your team.

Though the list of established veterans found in the 2011 class are impressive, perhaps the truly intriguing aspect of the position can be found in the potential breakout candidates. In all my years as a fan I have yet to see a year when more young talent was poised to make their mark on the big leagues as there appears to be in 2011. We all know how great Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen can be, but you may want to get to know several other names very soon. While not household names, there is serious star potential to be found when looking at Mike Stanton, Dominic Brown, Colby Rasmus, Mike Trout, Dexter Fowler, and Desmond Jennings, to name a few. Each of these players has the potential to be big time contributors to their respective ball club by mid-season with some being fully primed to make their impact known on opening day. This class has the potential to generate a handful of All-Stars who each could find themselves in the upper tiers of fantasy OF rankings as soon as 2012. Though it would be a gamble, you could hit it big to pass on some of the higher ranked stars in lieu of solidifying other positions and taking some homerun swings on some of these young talents.

With the sheer amount of talent available in the 2011 OF pool, every team should be able to land a solid trio to insert into their starting lineup, however, keep an eye out on the young talent as their ascension into the elite tier could happen before your very eyes.

Break Out:

Jay Bruce: In a year where there are a wealth of young outfielders on the verge of stardom, Jay Bruce looks to make the kind of breakout impact that Carlos Gonzalez did a season ago. Blessed with incredible natural talent as well as a above average plate approach for his age, Bruce already boasts the kind of power stroke that General Managers drool over having posted more than 20 HRs in each of the 3 seasons of his young tenure.

Bruce's primary weakness during 2008-2009 were his struggles against LH pitchers, where he managed just a .562 and .643 OPS and a meager 5 HRs in nearly 250 ABs. Bruce adjusted in a huge way in 2010 and excelled against both LH and RH pitching equally and as a result had an incredible breakout, in which he posted career highs across the board.

At only 23 and with an incredibly high ceiling, Bruce is no where near growing as a player. Though a repeat of his 2010 numbers would still place him comfortable in the middle tiers of fantasy OFs in 2011, Bruce is the kind of budding star that can finish as a top 20 player if he reaches his potential. In a lineup with Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs, and 2010 MVP Joey Votto there will be plenty of opportunities to score and drive in runs. I'm predicting huge things for Bruce and projecting a .290/32/100 line and being in the discussion for NL MVP come year's end.

Bounce Back:

Nick Markakis: It's hard to say what went wrong for Markakis in 2010. Consistency has always been one of his most valuable assets and there are no real weaknesses in his plate approach. However, the most noticeable outlier from last season's stats would be his struggles against RH pitching. A career .299/.377/.854 hitter against RHs, in 2010 Markakis saw his line dip to an unusual .269/.351/.762 finish.

In addition to the odd 2010 splits vs. RHs, Markakis also saw his HR totals take a bit of a dive. Though HRs have never been his strongest attribute, Markakis should still be looked upon to hit 15-20 per season. Adding some key offensive pieces to the lineup in 2011 should help as well. The Orioles completely revamped their lineup by adding veterans Derek Lee, Mark Reynolds, JJ Hardy, as well as a suddenly reenergized Vlad Guerreo this offseason. If Baltimore can get Brian Roberts healthy as well as the 2nd half version of Adam Jones, then the Orioles could possess a surprisingly capable offensive unit in 2011 in which Markakis will find himself at the top of. Though one should not expect any sort of incredible breakthrough, Markakis should at least trend back to his career averages and a .300/20/100 season looks to be a very attainable projection.

The Champ:

Nelson Cruz: Always an immensely talented player, Cruz has finally started to translate his incredible raw talent into tangible on the field production. A legitimate 5 tool beast, Cruz has the ability to be one of the best players in all of baseball and showed it in 2010.

Coming over to Texas in the Carlos Lee trade, Cruz destroyed MiL pitching from day 1, but struggled mightily during extended stints at the ML level and was placed on waivers prior to the 2008 season. After destroying AAA pitching throughout most of the 2008 season, Cruz was finally given another shot for the big league club and excelled in limited ABs posting a 1.030 OPS to finish the season. From there Cruz has done nothing but perform when healthy, and health has been the only roadblock to him putting up an MVP caliber season.

Multiple hamstring injuries limited Cruz to only 400 ABs in 2010. Despite missing significant time, he still went on to post a .318/22/78 season with 17 SBs and a .950 OPS. In 2011, Cruz looks to finally stay healthy and produce those numbers over an entire season which would profile him as a legitimate threat to be one of the MLs only 30/30 players. Additionally, he'll be provided with a wealth of RBI opportunities hitting behind Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre and could finally break the 100RBI mark for the first time of his career.

Relying on Cruz to stay healthy is a risky proposition for certain, but I'm betting on him reaching 550 ABs and thus reaching a line of .290/35/100 with 25 SBs.

The Chump:

Vernon Wells: There are at times players who (despite having great careers) will channel their inner youth and have one final stellar year before returning to their regression trend of the previous few seasons. Though Wells is only 32 years old and still has plenty of years left to be a positive contributor in his future, production years like 2010 are likely nothing but distant memories from hereon out.

In 2010 Wells shocked the league and was one of the league's most dangerous power hitters in the 1st half of the season with 19 HRs and 49 RBI, finishing with 31 and 88 respectively. Though a quality offensive threat, Wells had experienced a quite significant regressive trend from 2007-2009 in which he only reached 20 HR once and failed to top 80 RBI in any of those seasons.

During the offseason, Wells was the primary piece in a big acquisition in which he was acquired by the Angels. Though its debatable which team had a better offense, chances are good that the Angels will be able to put plenty of base runners on the diamond when Wells is up to bat and a repeat of 80+ RBI is not too much of a stretch, but the historical evidence strongly suggest that Wells is highly unlikely to reach the 30 HR mark again in the foreseeable future. Wells certainly has the potential to be a useful 3rd OF, but anything more than a .280/20/80 season would be a bit too rosy a picture for my tastes.