Fantasy SS Analysis

Short Stop

To suggest that the SS position is lacking in talent would be analyzing the 2011 crop with an overly sunny disposition, at best. Competing with the C position as the only group that looks to offer less across the board in regards to production, this year's class looks to offer just a couple of elite talents, followed by a group of solid veteran options, and then a wealth of 1-2 category contributors who are severely lacking in other areas.

Sitting firmly at the head of the class are Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki. Both are very good 5 category contributors and both are solid bets to repeat their elite production levels. Really the primary characterstic that separates the two is that Han-Ram has a history of stealing more bases whilst Tulowitzki has driven in more runs. They should put up a quite similar line in Runs, BA, and even HR and both should easily finish among the top 50 overall players, battling all season long for the rights to the Fantasy SS crown. With the position being as scarce as it is, if you are presented the opportunity to draft one of these two, do so with confidence.

Immediately following the elite duo we find some very familiar names who look to be solid contributors in 2011, albeit not the 5 category kings that their 1st tier counterparts look to offer. Truth be told, your choice between Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, and Jose Reyes will likely be based upon what particular stat you are chasing. Reyes and Rollins surprisingly profile very similarly. Neither are going to kill your BA but certainly won't impact it in a positive manner. Also, Rollins offers more pop while Reyes has a much higher potential to rack up a wealth of SBs. Jeter is a safer play if you are looking for solid contributions across the board. Though last season was a bit of a down year, especially regarding his BA, Jeter is still a much better overall hitter than his 2010 season stats would suggest and thus should at worst be the projected floor of his production hitting atop what looks to once again be a very good NY Yankees lineup.

Beyond this point there are many more question marks than safe bets. Alexei Ramirez, Stephen Drew, and Rafael Furcal each possess the potential to be positive contributors, but inconsistency, a poor lineup, and health concerns raise red flags upon each candidate respectively. Ramirez likely has the most upside of this group as a guy who possesses the talent to post a 20/20 season, but chances are that he is what he is at this point. Hitting at the top of the White Sox lineup should provide him with plenty of opportunities to run and to score runs whilst also providing solid HR and RBI numbers.

The 2011 class also on the surface looks to lack any significant depth, however, there are a handful of young players who could look to make an impact given the full-time opportunity. Players such as Elvis Andrus, Ian Desmond, Alcides Escobar and Starlin Castro look to make a name for themselves, but none really project to be impact bats and will contribute more with their speed on the base paths than in overall power numbers. Though if you miss out on the veteran options and want to take a gamble, each offer interesting upside.

Perhaps the best strategy to employ when selecting a SS in 2011 is just to select a player who offers a skill that fits with your overall roster. Chances are solid that whatever SS you end up will offer potential double digit SB totals so if you are able to land a player who also offers positive contributions in another category or 2, then you will have done well.

Break Out:

Starlin Castro: Young players who aren't completely overwhelmed at the ML level are impressive. 20 year olds who hit .300 during their inaugural season are potentially special. Many were surprised that Castro even got the call up at such a young age, but from the word go he shattered everyone's expectations and never hit the slump that everyone expected him to undergo. Posting solid splits vs. RH and LH as well as a solid doubles stroke (31 in only 463 ABs) Castro should be a good bet to improve upon his Run totals hitting atop the potent Cubs lineup. Castro should also improve upon his SB totals as he gains experience.

While not much of a power threat and still a little green on the base paths, any expectations of a immense breakout season should be tempered a bit as he still has a lot of room to grow physically and opposing pitchers will now have plenty of tape to try to find some weaknesses in his game which could result in a slight dip in his BA. However, when SS is so devoid of depth overall, a player who is capable of providing solid contributions in both BA and SB while posting solid Run totals should provide plenty of value. I'd be comfortable projecting a .280/5/50 season with 80+ Runs and around 15 SBs. If you miss out on the safer veteran options, I strongly endorse targeting Castro as your plan B.

Bounce Back:

Jimmy Rollins: It's hard to really know type of production you are going to get from Jimmy Rollins on a year to year basis. The early glimpses of a stud 5 category SS we witnessed in the beginning stages of his career seem to be long gone, but that doesn't mean that Rollins cannot still contribute to your fantasy team. Hitting leadoff in what certainly projects to be a very good Phillies' lineup, Rollins should once again rack up quality numbers in Runs and SBs, but the question year in and year out revolves around what he produces in BA and HR.

Throughout his career Rollins has experienced quite extreme peaks and valleys revolving around his BA ranging from a high of .296 in an MVP caliber 2006 season to a head-scratching .243 in an injury played 2010. I think a safe median would suggest that he is probably a .275 hitter with decent splits against both LH and RH, but again he has been such an enigma during his career that he could certainly surprise one way or another.

His power numbers have been equally hard to predict throughout his career. It is safe to say that Rollins possesses very good pop as he racks up the 2Bs yearly, but the issue always becomes how many of those 2Bs ultimately leave the park since most leagues don't tally 2Bs in their scoring settings. I wouldn't even bet on Rollins reaching his career high 30 HR mark ever again, but he is absolutely capable of posting 20 HR. While I am optimistic overall on his 2011 season, I think his bounce back will be good but ultimately limited. I'd project him to pst a .265/16/70 line in 2011 while giving owners a minimum of 30 SBs. Draft with confidence.

The Champ:

Troy Tulowitzki: The only thing holding Tulowitzki back from being one of the top producers in the entire MLs regardless of position is health. Injuries have significantly limited the Rockies' SS in 2 of the last 4 seasons. However, despite missing time he still somehow manages to put up great numbers. Even after logging a month of the 2010 season on the DL, he still bested Han-Ram in 2B, HR, RBI, and Total Bases despite logging nearly 100 less ABs. In fact he was even stronger after the injury than before posting a .938 OPS in August and simply ridiculous 1.120 OPS in September.

At 26, Tulowitzki is a legitimate .300 hitter with terrific power and is just entering the prime of his career. Realistically at this point his yearly averages should serve merely as his production floor and could even improve if he is ever able to improve his production on the road (.790 OPS on the road vs. .926 at home). He also is hitting in one of the league's most hitter friendly park and is firmly penciled in behind emerging star Carlos Gonzalez in what should be an overall solid Colorado Rockies lineup and thus should have little trouble once again putting up elite offensive numbers. Obviously one must always be cognizant of the injury concerns that surround Tulowitzki, but even if he misses a few games, he should still eclipse all other contenders in production and is a legitimate bet to log .300/30/90 from a paper thin 2011 SS class.

The Chump:

Juan Uribe: At 31 Uribe spent the majority of the 2010 season at SS in addition to being the Giants' most versatile utility player. Posting career highs in both HR and RBI he was surprisingly one of the biggest contributors in an otherwise weak San Francisco lineup and was 2nd to only Aubrey Huff in both catergories. While the power wasn't a complete surprise as Uribe is easily a perennial threat to best the 15 HR mark, it would be a mistake to rely upon him repeating the 24 that he produced last season. It is also difficult to get too excited about the HR totals when he is such a burden upon your .BA/.OBP (.256/.300 career) and does absolutely nothing to contribute in steals at a position where SBs are overall abundant.

Entering 2011 Uribe looks to start in what should be a solid LA Dodgers offensive unit and will remain eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS making him one of the best versatile infielder options in Fantasy Baseball. If you happen to miss out on all the upper tiered SS options, then Uribe can be a bearable starting option, however, proceed with caution when selecting Uribe as you don't want to make the mistake of paying for last year's stats. I'd project a .250/15/60 line from Uribe.