Fantasy 2B Analysis

Second Base

The 2B position has really transformed from that of a source for light-hitting base-stealers to a legitimate power position. What used to be a quite top-heavy positional hierarchy has been supplanted instead with what is actually a quite deep pool of fantasy contributors. Additionally the 2B position has candidates who offer quite a vast array of different skill-sets ranging from your HR launching Dan Uggla to your speed-demon base terrorizing Chone Figgins.

The 2B position also offers a handful of multi-faceted power/speed threats with roughly 5-10 players offering potential double digit totals in HRs and SBs. This class is headlined by perennial fantasy elite names such as Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, and Rickie Weeks.

Top billing of the 2011 class should remain the usual cast. Chase Utley was limited by injuries in 2010, but shouldn't be a big concern as he posted a monstrous September hitting .323 and posting a .967 OPS. While his career has been steadily trending downward since his incredible 2007 season, he still looks capable of putting up a more than healthy .285/30/100 line with 10+ SBs, putting him comfortably in the top tier of the 2B pool of players.

Competing with Utley will be Yankee budding star and 2010 breakout player Robinson Cano. The book on Cano has always been consistent. He is a player who will provide plus contributions in batting average combined with the rewards in Runs and RBI totals that hitting in the Yankee lineup provide. In 2010 he added a sudden surge of power that, while unexpected, doesn't look to be a fluke. Cano has always been a doubles machine averaging 40 per season since his inaugural 2005 campaign. One could argue that he really broke out in 2009 when he hit a then career high 25 HRs and posted a .871 OPS, but made the leap to ML stardom in 2010 posting an MVP like 29 HRs and a .914 OPS. He is as safe a bet as there is and his 2009 numbers should be considered his floor at this point.

In the 2nd tier you will find a wealth of quality options. Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, all look to bounce back from an injury plagued 2010 while Rickie Weeks looks to solidify his place at this level. Approach each with caution as Pedroia's ankle injury could serious limit his bas stealing threat and Kinsler and Weeks are both always a solid bet to miss an extended amount of time on the DL. When they do play each are capable of rewarding fantasy owners with double digit HR and SB numbers, so adjust your expectations accordingly.

The class becomes a bit murky when analyzing the list of players that have had quality seasons in the past but failed to live up to their expected production in 2010. Players like Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, Aaron Hill, and Ben Zobrist fill up this group as they all managed to miss their projected totals by a wide margin last season. Each carry very real question marks entering 2011 as to whether they can bounce back to their former stature or not. Roberts and Figgins must battle father time, while Hill and Zobrist must make adjustments to their respective approaches to increase their efficiency at the plate. These question marks make for interesting risk/reward selections and could provide quality production if you happen to miss out on the upper echelon talents. Despite being a class that lacks an abundance of low risk options, as a whole this year's 2B class looks to be surprisingly deep and should provide owners with good across the board production in 2011.

Breakout:

Gordon Beckham: The hype machine ran at maximum capacity entering the 2010 season. Beckham killed minor league pitching and held his own throughout his ML stint in the 2009 season, so expectations were high that a significant improvement was in order entering 2010, potentially even placing him amongst the fantasy elite. The expectations (combined with a position switch to 2B) were just too much though. Beckham was completely overmatched the first 3 months of the season and looked as if he might need a refresher stint back at AAA. However, the White Sox stuck with him and were rewarded with a huge July and August from Beckham in which he posted a .950 and .931 OPS respectively.

The midseason breakout is encouraging, but the caveat remains for potential owners to temper their expectations again in 2011. Chances are that Beckham will continue to experience periods where he flashes the All-Star hitting potential that he possesses, but those will be mixed with periods of struggle as he has to adjust to ML pitching. If Beckham ever hopes to become a fantasy elite 2B, the strikeout numbers will have to decrease and the BBs will need to trend upward. However, if you are the type that appreciates a good gamble, Beckham is certainly a very strong risk/reward candidate. I'm predicting a mini-breakout to the tune of .280/20/80, with the potential for more.

Bounce Back:

Aaron Hill: The list of potential 2B bounce back candidates was quite plentiful. However, when measuring 2010 Performance vs. 2011 Projection, the biggest gap in my mind lies with Aaron Hill. Overall, Hill had a completely miserable 2010 season. Hitting in what proved to be a high octane Toronto lineup, one could easily have projected that Hill would only benefit from the protection that his fellow teammates provided. Yet, somehow, Hill just never could get on track. Though he managed to hit 28 HRs in 2010, he only managed to hit over .200 in 2 months the entire season and eclipsed the .700 OPS mark once.

A career .270 hitter with legitimate 25+ HR power, the steep decline was a shocker amongst the majority of the fantasy community. Though he should never been considered a threat to post a .300 BA over the course of a season, he certainly shouldn't be reduced to a guy who struggles to hit above the mendoza line. I would estimate a resurgence more closely resembling his career .270 mark whilst also being fully capable of maintaining the HR stroke in 2011. A projected line of .270/23/85 would place him back into the ranks that he formerly occupied.

The Champ:

Dan Uggla: I almost can't believe I am writing this. Since his 2006 rookie season in which Uggla seemingly came from nowhere to hit 27 HRs and 90 RBI, Uggla has been the most prolific power threat at 2B in the MLs topping 31 HR in every following season (Uggla never topped 21 HRs at AA or AAA during his MiL career). I admit I was never a believer, as I awaited the low BA and high K numbers to eventually catch up to him and result in a career of mediocrity. Trust is, if one looks closer at his season by season trends you will find that Uggla as an overall hitter has improved while maintaining the power stroke that has solidified his reputation as one of the games most under appreciated power threats.

For Uggla, 2011 looks incredibly bright. The move from Florida to Atlanta places him in a better ball park, a better lineup, and a much more favorable competitive atmosphere. At worst Uggla looks to remain a lock to repeat a line similar to his historical average, but I am going even further with it and predicting an increase in his overall line. Put me down for Uggla reaching .280/35/100 this season and entering into the top tier of Fantasy 2B in future years.

The Chump:

Rickie Weeks: A part of me think that they only reason Weeks broke out in 2010 the way that he did was only so that he could let his supporters down again in 2011. For years Weeks teased owners with an incredible amount of fantasy 5 category potential that hinted at him becoming a perennial 25HR and 25SB beast, and each year he struggled to make the kind of impact that his supporters had hoped for.

After an injury shortened 2009 that saw him only appear in 37 games, his bandwagon was becoming quite desolate. He responded by having a career year and increasing his HR and RBI totals by nearly double his previous career highs. The secret to this sudden boost is likely attributed to the fact that he logged nearly 200 more at bats than any other season before. My analysis is not to suggest that he does not possess the talent to repeat this performance, but rather that his ability to stay healthy for an entire season is highly unlikely and thus his overall totals will suffer as a result. If you have a quality reserve that you are comfortable inserting when Weeks spends time on the DL then you may target him and play him when healthy, but I see a regression back a .260/17/60 player that will undoubtedly break the hearts of those who spend a high selection on him.