Fantasy 1B Analysis

First Base

As is usually the case, 1B will once again be the deepest position that you will find in the realm of fantasy baseball. I believe one could easily make the argument that there are 7 elite 1B options in Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Mark Teixeira each of whom could top 30/100 if healthy, and really that is just the floor. Ryan Howard has surpassed 130RBI 4 of the past 5 seasons. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are both perennial Triple Crown threats. Joey Votto is fresh off a 2010 campaign that earned him the NL MVP award. Each of these mashers are going to provide elite production and could vie for their respective league's MVP honors in 2011.

Once all of the top tier 1B are off the board, there still remains an incredible pool of talented options available. When you can call players such as Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn, Justin Morneau, and Paul Konerko consolation prizes, it is easy to see the immense amount of depth that 1B provides. With a little luck each of these players could also conceivably put up the kind of numbers that could earn them MVP honors. Morneau already has one and Youkilis and Konerko both have the prowess and a favorable situation to produce MVP type numbers.

In addition to known commodities, the 2011 1B crop also offers quite a few potentially attractive names in the middle tiers with formers greats like Carlos Lee, Carlos Pena, Derek Lee, and Lance Berkman available. Though each player's respective prime years are behind them, is it not unfathomable to conclude that a bounce back could await multiple members of this group. Truth be told with so many suitable options to be found and with most standard leagues consisting of between 10-12 teams, no team manager should be left wanting when it comes to 1B in 2011.

Breakout: Billy Butler: Butler has all of the tools to be an elite fantasy 1B, yet despite a fantastic hit tool and more than adequate raw power, the HRs just haven't quite started to add up. He showed signs of breaking through in 2009 when he belted 21 HRs and 51 doubles, but regressed in 2010 with only 15 and 45. Butler profiles to be a legitimate .300 hitter and his patience has improved every season. He is just now entering his age 25 season so there is still hope. He has been a doubles machine over the past 2 years and could conceivably become a perennial 25+HR threat. Put me down as a believer that he begins that trend this season and I would bank on a 25/100/.310 campaign for Butler in 2011.

Bounce Back: Kendry Morales: Morales was en route to fantasy stardom before a freak (and exceptional strange) injury ended his 2010 season. Always a sensationally talented player, he put things together in a huge way in 2009 and easily looked to be one of the brightest talents at 1B in the MLs. An all around good hitter who is capable of hitting for average and 30+HR power is a nice find even at 1B. In 2010 he was right back on track for a 35HR season when he fractured his leg during celebrations at home plate. Given the nature of the injury he should be 100% healed in 2011 and it is unlikely the type of injury that should linger in any way. I am confident that he'll get right back on the path to stardom hitting in the middle of a solid LAA lineup. Look for a .290/35/115 line for Morales in 2011.

The Champ: Adrian Gonzalez: You really can't go wrong with most of the elite names, but I'm predicting that this year we'll see Adrian Gonzalez ascend to a fantasy beast. Gonzalez is not new to the fantasy elite, but he has been forced to play half of his games in arguably the worst hitter's park in the entire MLs though you wouldn't know it by looking at his stats. In 2011, he moves to not only one of the more hitter friendly parks in the MLs, but also into an immensely talented lineup. The new park should lead to a nice boost in HR and being in the middle of a lineup that includes Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 40/130/.300 line and MVP discussions for Gonzalez in 2011.

The Chump: Carlos Pena: In year's past you could overlook the batting average as his power numbers more than made up for his lack of consistent hits. In reality, his numbers were very much on par with the HR launching Adam Dunn, especially if playing in a league that values .OBP. However, over the past 4 years Pena's batting average has plummeted on a very concerning downward spiral. Dropping from .282 in 2007 to .247 in 2008, .227 in 2009, and finally an embarrassingly atrocious .196 in 2010 one has to have serious concerns that something is wrong with Pena's swing and/or approach at the plate. The HR stroke was still there as 28 of his mere 95 total hits were HRs, but the lack of any other consistent offense sapped his RBI numbers, totaling only 84 in 2010. A move to a much friendly hitter's park in Chicago could lead to a slight bounce-back, but with all the other terrific options available at 1B, you should steer clear of Pena in 2011. I'd project him to be a .230/25/75 guy in 2011.