Just a Little Crush?

Ranger Nation is in full scale panic mode after the announcement by Jon Daniels that 2010 AL MVP and Batting Champion Josh Hamilton will likely miss up to 8 weeks after suffering what is being described as a non-displaced fracture of the humerus bone after trying to score from 3B on an infield popup behind home-plate. Though Hamilton had yet to hit a HR thus far in 2011, he still represented one of the most prolific overall hitters in the Rangers' entire lineup and substituting his abilities both offensively and defensively will ultimately be impossible. However, what's done is done and the Rangers now must prepare a contingency plan to best supplement the lineup now that Hamilton is out. So how is this best done given the options that are available?

The answer is simple, regarding the defense at least. History suggests David Murphy is the primary candidate to fill a full-time cOF role if an injury were to occur to Hamilton or Cruz, and chances are strong that he'll do just that during Hamilton's DL stint. Then, replacing Murphy in the 4th OF spot would be Mitch Moreland's new secondary role in addition to being the full-time 1B. This all seems simple enough thus far, however, things really get a bit murky when discussing who takes over at 1B/DH in those situations when Moreland does line up in the OF.

One part of the equation seems easy enough. When facing a LH pitcher, Mike Napoli will play 1B with Michael Young being the #1 DH option (and sometimes vice-versa). Moreland gets all of the starts against RH pitching as he has done nothing but impress so far this season. So you then have Mitch Moreland playing vs. all RH pitchers with Napoli/Young getting their usual number of ABs at 1B/DH when Moreland lines up in the OF. Problem solved right? But wait.... Almost immediately following the news that Hamilton would miss an extended period of time, the news comes out that the Rangers will replace his roster spot with none other than the enigmatic AAA titan Chris Davis.... which blows the previous entire analysis all to hell.

The book on Davis is well read by most devoted Rangers fans. He posts super human power numbers in AAA and Spring Training every year, but has failed to consistently adjust to ML pitching and begins striking out at record setting rates. The potential is still there as Davis is only 25 years old and has always flashed incredible raw power to go along with surprisingly terrific 1B defense. He's never been much of an On-Base guy and his BB:K ratios will always make any statistician uneasy, but a GG caliber 1B who is capable of hitting 40HRs per year still has immense value even if the BA and OBP numbers don't jump off the charts. Despite 2 failed ML auditions, the Rangers still seem to be very optimistic about his future and refuse to sell-low on him despite his dwindling MiL options (1 remaining). One could easily envision the Rangers front office wanting (at some point) to give Davis one last "come hell or high-water" crack at becoming a ML regular in hopes that he catches fire. Davis having success at the ML level gives the Rangers an incredible amount of flexibility both as a trade chip and as a replacement for Michael Young if a viable trade comes along. Everyone in the organization wants Davis to get that shot and to succeed in it, but certainly not at the cost of the team's best hitter. But now that the time is upon us and given the current structure of this team, the question now becomes "how does Davis fit into the gameplan NOW"?

The answer is not so simple. The easiest and most logical use of Davis' skills would be as a LH platoon at 1B as he has relatively good splits against RH pitching, most notably in the power areas. But with Moreland being a LH and already exceeding early expectations and showing the plate approach of a 10 year veteran, there is just no way that Davis and his extensive red flags can or should bump Moreland on any sort of a regular basis. You could move Moreland to LF against RH pitchers, but then you are taking Murphy's (another LH who hits RH pitching well) production out of the equation in favor of Davis and his checkered history against ML pitching. DH isn't an option on most nights because Michael Young has to play somewhere and despite his flaws is still a known quantity vs. the gamble that Davis presents. And playing time against LH shouldn't even be considered at this point given Davis' putrid splits against lefties.

So with all these scenarios reflecting a situation where Davis may get only a handful of ABs every week, how does he even fit on the ML roster? Without question, the biggest hole in the Rangers' roster is now backup CF. Murphy will likely be that guy now, but his range still leaves plenty to be desired. To me the most logical call-up would be Craig Gentry as a pinch runner and defensive specialist (he is terrific at all the OF spots). Wouldn't it even have been more prudent to bring up Taylor Teagarden as an "emergency catcher" in order to get Napoli (who is off to a torrid start against both LH and RH thus far) more ABs without having to worry about being stuck without a catcher? Or even to bring up Engel Beltre (who is already on the 40 man) as a strictly Defensive CF/Pinch Runner to give him a taste of what it is like to be a ML and be around those caliber of players as a humbling experience? Bringing up Davis only serves to make an incredibly crowded 1B/DH position that much more saturated and does little to provide Davis with much needed ABs to (hopefully) fine tune his craft.

One would think that the Rangers and Jon Daniels have a plan in place already, but as it currently stands, consider me to be confused as hell as to how this will all play out. I guess we shall see soon enough how he fits into the equation.