Fantasy C Analysis

Catcher

As immensely deep as the 1B position is fantasy-wise in 2011, the catching position can be found on the complete other end of the spectrum. The position is very top heavy and after your elite options the talent level takes a sizable plunge. The elite options remain Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, and Brian McCann with the young stud Buster Posey looking to solidify his place after an incredibly surprising inaugural season. While none of them are likely to provide you elite production across the board relative to the offensive juggernauts at other positions, they all should be head and shoulders above the field amongst their peers.

Behind the elite options are some potential breakout and bounce back candidates as well as a few solid, yet unspectacular, veteran backstops. You essentially know what you are going to get by selecting Jorge Posada, John Buck, A.J. Pierzynski, and the likes as each have extensive history to draw from. None should be counted upon to provide any sort of consistent offensive production. However, if you miss on one of the top options then this is the year where you take a gamble on a guy who has flashed incredible potential yet struggled with consistency such as Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki, or Miguel Montero, or to go all in with the pedigreed minor-league phenoms in Carlos Santana and Matt Wieters.

When drafting a backstop in 2011, it is important to remember that even the highest ranked catcher's stats will likely pale in comparison to the top producers at other positions. Be conscious of the amount of trade off that you might forfeit statistically by selecting an elite catcher as opposed to a 2nd tier player at another position as the difference between the two could be vast when judged by a strictly statistical analysis.

Breakout:

Matt Wieters: Immense talent has never been lacking with Wieters, however, as is often the case with young up and coming talents, he was overhyped and failed to live up to incredibly lofty expectations. In his brief 3 year career he has had immense pressure placed upon him, has been smack dab in the middle of a very poor Baltimore lineup, and has struggled mightily against LH pitchers

All that being said, there are things to like about Wieters. There is little doubt that Baltimore is going to give Wieters every chance to develop at the ML level, and the Baltimore offense should be much improved with the additions of Vladimir Guerrero and Mark Reynolds. A realistic floor should be around his 2 year career averages of 10/50/.266, however, due to his pedigree the possibility is there for his light to finally come on in his 3rd season. Owners who haven't given up on Wieters should be rewarded this season with a minor breakthrough. I'm cautiously optimistic in projection a 15/65/.270 season from Wieters with a distinct possibility for much much more.

Bounce Back:

Miguel Montero: Better late than never right? Many expected that this was going to happen in 2010 after belting 16HR and posting a .832 in 2009, but unfortunately a knee injury derailed his entire season early on and he never quite managed to get on track. The good news is that his 9/43/.266 line in 331 ABs is still significantly better than the majority of other catching options and projected over the course of an entire season would easily put him in the running to be one of the top overall backstops in the league.

While there is reason for optimism, the reality is that the Diamondbacks offense is likely to be mediocre at best and that he'll get the usual amount of rest as a catcher, however, with an emerging superstar in Justin Upton and an underrated yet functional Kelly Johnson getting on base ahead of him, he should be provided with enough RBI opportunities to provide well above average at catcher. Temper your expectations, but be thrilled with a 22/80/.275 campaign in 2011.

The Champ:

Victor Martinez: If the topic were best catcher in the MLs, then Joe Mauer is without question the best all around catcher in the bigs, however, when discussing fantasy baseball there are many other factors to consider and defensive prowess isn't one of them. Victor Martinez is one of the premier offensive backstops of the past decade. A legitimate .300 hitter who is equally adept at hitting both LH and RH pitching, Martinez also offers above average power and good plate discipline from the catcher position.

Perhaps the real reason to give the crown to V-Mart in 2011 is that when he is not catching he should be in the lineup as a DH thus he'll likely play every day, which is a rarity for catchers in today's game. Moving from Boston to Detroit will likely create a slight drain on his HR totals, but he should stick rack up his fair share of doubles, and as long as he is driving runners in it shouldn't negatively affect his RBI totals. I think one could reasonably predict a 17/90/.310 season placing him at or near the top of the catcher pool.

The Chump:

John Buck: Buck had a career year in 2010 without question, reaching career highs in doubles, HRs, RBI, Batting Average, and On-Base Percentage. A player having a career year in a contract year is hardly a rare occurrence (Javy Lopez hit 43 HR in 2003... 43 HR!!!!) and Buck certainly cashed in this offseason to the tune of $18M over 3 years. However, moving from a potent Toronto offense to a Florida squad that consists of Hanley Ramirez and little else is not going to do any favors to his output.

Buck's greatest asset is that he is capable of providing above average power at the position. However, with 6 years of evidence to draw from all signs with Buck point towards a one year fluke in 2010 and a steep drop off to his career mean. Given the lack of talent at the position Buck is certainly worth owning as he will be THE man at catcher for the Marlins, but just don't base your selection off of last year's stats. Look to history and expect a .245/12/55 season.

Fantasy 1B Analysis

First Base

As is usually the case, 1B will once again be the deepest position that you will find in the realm of fantasy baseball. I believe one could easily make the argument that there are 7 elite 1B options in Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Mark Teixeira each of whom could top 30/100 if healthy, and really that is just the floor. Ryan Howard has surpassed 130RBI 4 of the past 5 seasons. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are both perennial Triple Crown threats. Joey Votto is fresh off a 2010 campaign that earned him the NL MVP award. Each of these mashers are going to provide elite production and could vie for their respective league's MVP honors in 2011.

Once all of the top tier 1B are off the board, there still remains an incredible pool of talented options available. When you can call players such as Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn, Justin Morneau, and Paul Konerko consolation prizes, it is easy to see the immense amount of depth that 1B provides. With a little luck each of these players could also conceivably put up the kind of numbers that could earn them MVP honors. Morneau already has one and Youkilis and Konerko both have the prowess and a favorable situation to produce MVP type numbers.

In addition to known commodities, the 2011 1B crop also offers quite a few potentially attractive names in the middle tiers with formers greats like Carlos Lee, Carlos Pena, Derek Lee, and Lance Berkman available. Though each player's respective prime years are behind them, is it not unfathomable to conclude that a bounce back could await multiple members of this group. Truth be told with so many suitable options to be found and with most standard leagues consisting of between 10-12 teams, no team manager should be left wanting when it comes to 1B in 2011.

Breakout: Billy Butler: Butler has all of the tools to be an elite fantasy 1B, yet despite a fantastic hit tool and more than adequate raw power, the HRs just haven't quite started to add up. He showed signs of breaking through in 2009 when he belted 21 HRs and 51 doubles, but regressed in 2010 with only 15 and 45. Butler profiles to be a legitimate .300 hitter and his patience has improved every season. He is just now entering his age 25 season so there is still hope. He has been a doubles machine over the past 2 years and could conceivably become a perennial 25+HR threat. Put me down as a believer that he begins that trend this season and I would bank on a 25/100/.310 campaign for Butler in 2011.

Bounce Back: Kendry Morales: Morales was en route to fantasy stardom before a freak (and exceptional strange) injury ended his 2010 season. Always a sensationally talented player, he put things together in a huge way in 2009 and easily looked to be one of the brightest talents at 1B in the MLs. An all around good hitter who is capable of hitting for average and 30+HR power is a nice find even at 1B. In 2010 he was right back on track for a 35HR season when he fractured his leg during celebrations at home plate. Given the nature of the injury he should be 100% healed in 2011 and it is unlikely the type of injury that should linger in any way. I am confident that he'll get right back on the path to stardom hitting in the middle of a solid LAA lineup. Look for a .290/35/115 line for Morales in 2011.

The Champ: Adrian Gonzalez: You really can't go wrong with most of the elite names, but I'm predicting that this year we'll see Adrian Gonzalez ascend to a fantasy beast. Gonzalez is not new to the fantasy elite, but he has been forced to play half of his games in arguably the worst hitter's park in the entire MLs though you wouldn't know it by looking at his stats. In 2011, he moves to not only one of the more hitter friendly parks in the MLs, but also into an immensely talented lineup. The new park should lead to a nice boost in HR and being in the middle of a lineup that includes Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 40/130/.300 line and MVP discussions for Gonzalez in 2011.

The Chump: Carlos Pena: In year's past you could overlook the batting average as his power numbers more than made up for his lack of consistent hits. In reality, his numbers were very much on par with the HR launching Adam Dunn, especially if playing in a league that values .OBP. However, over the past 4 years Pena's batting average has plummeted on a very concerning downward spiral. Dropping from .282 in 2007 to .247 in 2008, .227 in 2009, and finally an embarrassingly atrocious .196 in 2010 one has to have serious concerns that something is wrong with Pena's swing and/or approach at the plate. The HR stroke was still there as 28 of his mere 95 total hits were HRs, but the lack of any other consistent offense sapped his RBI numbers, totaling only 84 in 2010. A move to a much friendly hitter's park in Chicago could lead to a slight bounce-back, but with all the other terrific options available at 1B, you should steer clear of Pena in 2011. I'd project him to be a .230/25/75 guy in 2011.

The Texas Rangers: The Next Chapter or Same Ol' Story

It's June 28th, the Rangers are in 1st place in the AL West and a game behind the New York Yankees for 1st place in the entire ML with a 46-29 record. Despite a similar place in the standings last season (they were 40-35 thru 75 games in 2009) the Rangers go into today's off day 4.5 games ahead of the reigning AL West Pennant Winning Los Angeles Angels in contrast to being down 2.5 a year before.

As usual, the Rangers offense is clicking on all cylinders. With young hitters Julio Borbon and Justin Smoak finally breaking out of early season struggles, the Rangers are getting exceptional offensive production from every part of the lineup aside from the catcher position. However, what makes this year different from years past is the incredible strides that the team has made in both the starting rotation and bullpen. Offense can sell tickets, but pitching and defense are what wins pennants.

The bullpen has been exceptional led by Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, Frankie Fransisco, and young closer Neftali Feliz. Historical data is available to suggest that the success of the bullpen is sustainable. Feliz lacks the experience, but has been unhittable (maintaining a .152 career BAA and a .082 WHIP) at the ML level since he was first called up at the end of the 2009 season.

However, the rotation is a bit of a different story. The Rangers rotation is littered with "pleasant surprises" this season. Certainly even the most successful starters have their fair share of question marks. CJ Wilson has never been a starter before, Colby Lewis is attempting a phoenix like resurrection into the MLB, Tommy Hunter is still incredibly young and unproven, and Scott Feldman has to prove if 2009 was a trend or fluke. To question whether they can sustain their current production is acceptable, so long as one does not discount what they have managed to do thus far in 2010. Certainly one would consider the lot of them to be at worst above average back of the rotation candidates. Which leads to the most notable concern that the Rangers have this season... a legitimate arm at the top of the rotation.

Much has been discussed on this topic as the Rangers have been continuously linked to Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee in recent trade rumors. The likelihood of the Rangers acquiring either player is going to rest upon whether new ownership can be brought in prior to the MLB Trade Deadline on July 31st (which truth be told at this point looks questionable at best). Financially, Roy Oswalt is going to be completely unnattanaible as MLB Owners will not approve allowing the Rangers to take on an additional $20MM liability until ownership is settled, however, the team could afford to acquire Cliff Lee who is only under contract for the remainder of the 2010 season. However, with at least 8 other contending teams likely to be bidding for his services the price tag in terms of prospects (of which the Rangers value at a premium) is likely going to be a bit steeper than they will ultimately want to pay.

Truth be told I think many Ranger fans are going to be disappointed by the Rangers being neither buyers or sellers at the deadline. I certainly think the team will attempt to find a RH reserve player capable of playing 1B/3B/cOF, but may just elect to fill that role internally via a player like Ryan Garko.

So assuming that the team is relegated to standing pat as the deadline approaches, the question becomes... can they compete for the AL Pennant in 2010? The answer (for me at least) is an optimistic maybe. Unfortunately the team is going to have to rely on their unproven rotation and perhaps even (gulp!) Rich Harden to carry them the rest of the way. The offense will score runs, the defense will continue to be acceptable, and the back end of the bullpen should continue to be dependable... which in my view at least guarantees that the Rangers will be competitive down to the wire, but if the Angels are able to acquire an impact bat before the deadline, their experience and past success in August and September are going to be a tremendous asset in their favor.

Nolan Ryan predicted a 92 win season for the Rangers in 2010 which I certainly feel is entirely attainable at this point. Whether or not 92 wins is enough to clinch the AL West has yet to be seen.