Just a Little Crush?

Ranger Nation is in full scale panic mode after the announcement by Jon Daniels that 2010 AL MVP and Batting Champion Josh Hamilton will likely miss up to 8 weeks after suffering what is being described as a non-displaced fracture of the humerus bone after trying to score from 3B on an infield popup behind home-plate. Though Hamilton had yet to hit a HR thus far in 2011, he still represented one of the most prolific overall hitters in the Rangers' entire lineup and substituting his abilities both offensively and defensively will ultimately be impossible. However, what's done is done and the Rangers now must prepare a contingency plan to best supplement the lineup now that Hamilton is out. So how is this best done given the options that are available?

The answer is simple, regarding the defense at least. History suggests David Murphy is the primary candidate to fill a full-time cOF role if an injury were to occur to Hamilton or Cruz, and chances are strong that he'll do just that during Hamilton's DL stint. Then, replacing Murphy in the 4th OF spot would be Mitch Moreland's new secondary role in addition to being the full-time 1B. This all seems simple enough thus far, however, things really get a bit murky when discussing who takes over at 1B/DH in those situations when Moreland does line up in the OF.

One part of the equation seems easy enough. When facing a LH pitcher, Mike Napoli will play 1B with Michael Young being the #1 DH option (and sometimes vice-versa). Moreland gets all of the starts against RH pitching as he has done nothing but impress so far this season. So you then have Mitch Moreland playing vs. all RH pitchers with Napoli/Young getting their usual number of ABs at 1B/DH when Moreland lines up in the OF. Problem solved right? But wait.... Almost immediately following the news that Hamilton would miss an extended period of time, the news comes out that the Rangers will replace his roster spot with none other than the enigmatic AAA titan Chris Davis.... which blows the previous entire analysis all to hell.

The book on Davis is well read by most devoted Rangers fans. He posts super human power numbers in AAA and Spring Training every year, but has failed to consistently adjust to ML pitching and begins striking out at record setting rates. The potential is still there as Davis is only 25 years old and has always flashed incredible raw power to go along with surprisingly terrific 1B defense. He's never been much of an On-Base guy and his BB:K ratios will always make any statistician uneasy, but a GG caliber 1B who is capable of hitting 40HRs per year still has immense value even if the BA and OBP numbers don't jump off the charts. Despite 2 failed ML auditions, the Rangers still seem to be very optimistic about his future and refuse to sell-low on him despite his dwindling MiL options (1 remaining). One could easily envision the Rangers front office wanting (at some point) to give Davis one last "come hell or high-water" crack at becoming a ML regular in hopes that he catches fire. Davis having success at the ML level gives the Rangers an incredible amount of flexibility both as a trade chip and as a replacement for Michael Young if a viable trade comes along. Everyone in the organization wants Davis to get that shot and to succeed in it, but certainly not at the cost of the team's best hitter. But now that the time is upon us and given the current structure of this team, the question now becomes "how does Davis fit into the gameplan NOW"?

The answer is not so simple. The easiest and most logical use of Davis' skills would be as a LH platoon at 1B as he has relatively good splits against RH pitching, most notably in the power areas. But with Moreland being a LH and already exceeding early expectations and showing the plate approach of a 10 year veteran, there is just no way that Davis and his extensive red flags can or should bump Moreland on any sort of a regular basis. You could move Moreland to LF against RH pitchers, but then you are taking Murphy's (another LH who hits RH pitching well) production out of the equation in favor of Davis and his checkered history against ML pitching. DH isn't an option on most nights because Michael Young has to play somewhere and despite his flaws is still a known quantity vs. the gamble that Davis presents. And playing time against LH shouldn't even be considered at this point given Davis' putrid splits against lefties.

So with all these scenarios reflecting a situation where Davis may get only a handful of ABs every week, how does he even fit on the ML roster? Without question, the biggest hole in the Rangers' roster is now backup CF. Murphy will likely be that guy now, but his range still leaves plenty to be desired. To me the most logical call-up would be Craig Gentry as a pinch runner and defensive specialist (he is terrific at all the OF spots). Wouldn't it even have been more prudent to bring up Taylor Teagarden as an "emergency catcher" in order to get Napoli (who is off to a torrid start against both LH and RH thus far) more ABs without having to worry about being stuck without a catcher? Or even to bring up Engel Beltre (who is already on the 40 man) as a strictly Defensive CF/Pinch Runner to give him a taste of what it is like to be a ML and be around those caliber of players as a humbling experience? Bringing up Davis only serves to make an incredibly crowded 1B/DH position that much more saturated and does little to provide Davis with much needed ABs to (hopefully) fine tune his craft.

One would think that the Rangers and Jon Daniels have a plan in place already, but as it currently stands, consider me to be confused as hell as to how this will all play out. I guess we shall see soon enough how he fits into the equation.

A Run Saved is a Run Not Earned... or Un-Earned

The reigning 2010 World Series runners up are off to a tantalizing start in 2011. Though the pitching as a whole entered the season as the team's biggest red flag, throughout 8 games it has been surprisingly steady with perhaps the least likeliest duo of all in Matt Harrison and Alexi Ogando both making key contributions to kick off the season. Though sample size should always be heavily weighed this early into a fresh season, the results from the pitching staff have been encouraging, but the real question remains "can it continue?" Though there are certainly reasons to doubt this, I believe that there are some several factors that exists to support the notion.

Easily the most intriguing story to unfold in the 2011 season is the shape of the pitching staff (no the Michael Young "tantrums" and trade demands do not count as intriguing). Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan knew there were very real concerns surrounding the starting rotation and the noticeable lack of a true "Top of the Rotation Pitcher", herein referred to as TORP, and made aggressive attempts to land such talents as Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, and in what I can conclude as a shear desperation attempt in Matt Garza. Though some would claim that any price tag was worth the return on investment we would receive in a season that should without question be tagged as "Win Now", the Rangers front office ultimately passed on each option determining that the asking price and the long-term implications it could have on the franchises resources were simply too steep. The debate will surely flare up at any point during this season if the starting pitching stumbles but hindsight will always be in perfect clarity and what's done is done.

Which leaves us to where we are now. As it stands, the regular rotations for this year's squad will likely end up being CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, and Tommy Hunter with Alexi Ogando ultimately moving back into the bullpen that is desperate for an 8th inning RH stopper. It doesn't take Buster Olney to see that this group possesses a ton of question marks. We still aren't sure exactly what we have in CJ and Colby as each have only 2010 results as evidence to support their standings. Tommy Hunter is solid but lacks true upside and without dominating raw "stuff" will at times get knocked around if his command falters even a bit. Matt Harrison looks fantastic now, but we've seen this bit before where he will shut down opposing teams for 3-4 starts and then just completely lose it. The champagne for Holland's breakout party has been on ice for several years now and despite flashing true brilliance, he has yet to find the sort of consistency in both performance and health to make him a true TORP. When looking at the group as a whole you certainly see a staff that despite its questions, has immense potential if they are ever able to put it all together. Though the potential for great things exist, in a season in which the window to win a championship is as wide as it may ever be, you can see why the front office would have liked to have acquired at least one "sure-thing" to put somewhere into the rotation.

However, the truth is that just about every team has these same concerns, and because of that it isn't as if there are a dozen TORP flooding the Free Agent market every season allowing every potential contender to acquire one. It is because of this that it becomes so important for a team to build from within and develop their own talents, and if you know anything about the "Jon Daniels Strategy" over the past few years you will know that the Ranger's have made this an essential part of their overall player personnel strategy. We're already seeing the dividends of this on the major league club with players like Feliz and Andrus amongst others. The excitement that goes hand in hand with a young talent ascending from a prospect to a producer certainly is compelling, but again this is a "Win-Now" squad. There is alot of risk involved with relying on young players making the adjustments to succeed at the Major League level. Jon Daniels knew this when formulating his plan and certainly recognized it going into the 2011 season. And with the Ranger's being unable to land the sort of talent like Cliff Lee that can stabilize and give credibility to any rotation, Daniels focused on the one area that he could make an impact at... Defense.

It's importance is an oft debated topic and there are numerous metrics used in these discussions to support or dismiss its value. But in a common sense approach, its hard to deny that "Runs Saved" are equally important as "Runs Scored". And with this in mind, the Rangers have assembled what looks to not only be good, but a potentially great defensive unit. Though casual fans, some national media members, and Michael Young's ego were oblivious to it, the fact simply exists that Young's defense at 3B (and really anywhere in the field at this point) is substandard. The defensive metrics support this just as much as the eye-ball test supports it. He has become a liability at what is a very essential defensive position and his offensive output simply is not substantial enough to justify remaining status quo. So with the market being dearth of TORP options, Jon Daniels went out and acquired the only premium 3B Free Agent available in Adrian Beltre. Without crapping too much on Michael Young (who I do, as a fan, like very much) its hard to emphasize enough just how vast of an upgrade Adrian Beltre will be over Young at 3B for the next 3 years. In just 8 games this season we have already witnessed arguably 2-3 plays that Beltre has made on balls that would have found a way past Young and pro-longed innings for our pitchers. Just to further emphasize this point in case it wasn't clear, but Adrian Beltre is one of (if not THE) best defensive 3B in the game over the past decade and it is those sort of plays that he is able to make that are going to be a huge asset in allowing our SP to go deeper into games more consistently.

So when you combine Beltre's elite range at 3B with Andrus' freakish range and every improving consistency at SS you have arguably the best Left Side of an infield that exists in the Big Leagues. Combine that with an outfield of Hamilton, Borbon, and Cruz and Torreabla behind the dish and you have a strong overall defensive unit that creates a very comforting environment for a young pitcher to flourish in, and success breeds confidence which is essential for young talented arms to trust their respective ability and reach their true potential. The defense has the potential to be so good, in fact, that we may see breakout season's from both Derek Holland and Matt Harrison which would be an incredible boon to the Rangers' short and long term ability to contend.

So when watching, please give the defense its due when it makes a routine out, because what is a routine play for talents like Beltre and Andrus could be a seeing eye single for other teams... and if we are to lay to rest the questions and concerns to currently exist regarding our starting rotation, the quality of the defense this season is going to be essential in alleviating those concerns.

P.S. Michael Young will be the first player in MLB History to win a Gold Glove at DH... just so ya know.

Fantasy SP Analysis

Starting Pitcher

MLB has made some interesting shifts over the years and when analyzing the 2011 SP class one could make an argument that a new ERA of dominant pitching is now upon us.

This year's crop is incredibly strong with the upper tier not only being impressive in the quality of its pitchers, but the amount of depth in the top tier as well. The big 3 going into the 2011 season appears to be Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, and Tim Lincecum. Rightfully so because each man possesses the kind of talent that is capable of winning a Cy Young award if health doesn't derail any of their respective seasons. But really I think a person could make a legitimate debate that there are about a dozen other arms who could each have as much a chance to win the award for top pitcher in the league as the top 3 do. You'd have to find some pretty compelling evidence to argue against names like Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, and Chris Carpenter. Each of these veterans have the historical evidence of dominance as well as a good enough supporting cast to contend for the SP crown.

Looking further, the 2011 class also features some of the most impressive young talents that you will ever find in the game at one time. Between the wealth of young stars in Francisco Liriano, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, and Josh Johnson to the even younger Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Tommy Hanson, Mat Latos, and Yovani Gallardo you have a group of options who all have the talent to be a bonafide ACE for most ML clubs.

From this point on is where the true measure of the depth that this year's class possesses is showcased as there are plenty of quality options to be found, though possesses a bit more risk than with the options at the upper tiers. With players like Jonathan Sanchez, Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, Ricky Romero, and CJ Wilson you have players who surprised Fantasy Owners by each having breakout seasons in 2010. Also in this range you will find quality veterans options like Wandy Rodriguez, Ervin Santana, Tim Hudson, Ted Lilly, and Hiroki Kuroda who might lack the upside that higher ranked options might possess, but should all post solid numbers across the board in their own regard.

And for those who like to take some risks, you will find plenty of names towards the bottom of the rankings of players who once were top tiered starters in their own regard. If you are in need of a homerun pick and are willing to take the risk, you could find a nice surprise landing a player like Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, James Shields, John Lackey, or Javier Vazquez. Each are only a year or two removed from being incredibly production players and each could still regain some of that success if the stars align. League are often won with the sort of risk/reward value that guys in this category can bring, but one must choose carefully and build a pitching staff that isn't too heavily reliant upon such risky propositions.

Overall the 2011 class is certainly not lacking in quality or quantity, but because of that the emphasis on landing at least 4 quality starters becomes that much more important. It might be prudent to take one of the elite options and then filling out your staff with safe reliable options rather than taking too many gambles on bounce back or young unproven arms. Whichever way you choose please just take a moment to appreciate the wealth of talent that we are seeing at the ML level as there is no telling when a shift back to the long-ball may take place.

Break Out:

Max Scherzer: Though showing flashes of brilliance since he made his debut with Arizona in 2008, Scherzer has yet to put it all together over the course of an entire season to realize his full potential. With excellent stuff, Scherzer has always been a solid contributor in the strikeout totals averaging right at a K per inning over his career. Inconsistency and at times spotty command has been his biggest downfall, though his BB/9 has steadily decreased every year, leading to optimism for the coming year.

In reality, Scherzer's overall numbers for the 2010 season were actually quite solid overall though a very slow start to the season actually skew how brilliant he really was in the 2nd half. In fact, his first two months of the season were so bad that Detriot sent him down to AAA on a temporary assignment in hopes of him righting the ship, and that is exactly what he did. Following being called back up to the big leagues, Scherzer was one of the more dominant pitchers in the game, posting a 2.47 ERA and just over 8 K/9.

If he carry this momentum over into the 2011 season, Scherzer has the ability to be a real steal if you are able to land him as your 3rd or 4th starter as 200 K pitchers who post solid numbers in all other categories are not overly abundant. If Detroit's offense will score runs for him an increase in win totals should also trend upwards. I feel a giant breakthrough coming for Scherzer in 2011 to the tune of 15 Wins, 200 Ks, and a ERA around 3.25.

Bounce Back:

Dan Haren: It's really difficult to nail down what exactly was the cause of Haren's initial struggles in 2010. Despite posting high strikeout totals throughout the season, the only consistency that Haren was able to find during the 1st half of the season was that he was consistently bad and it was evident as he disappointed owners with an abnormal 4.00+ ERA. It wasn't until Haren was acquired by the Angels at the trade deadline that he begin to find his groove that owners are so accustomed to.

Normally moves from the NL to the AL don't equate to a boost in production, but for Haren the move to a contender certainly led to a striking increase in his 2nd half performance. A perennial threat to top the 200 K mark, Haren posted one of the better post All Star breaks of his entire career to the tune of a 2.87 ERA and 75 Ks during the 2nd half. Though his record was only 5-4, an improved LAA squad should provide better run support for Haren along with solid defense in 2011 and thus an increase in his win total should certainly be expected.

Look for Haren to return to his typical dominant self in 2011 and finishing in the top 10 in Ks for the season. A line of 15 Wins, 210 Ks and a healthy ERA of around 3.4 would be a solid projection as Haren reestablishes himself amongst the upper tier of SPs.

The Champ:

Tim Lincecum: It is really hard to find anything negative to say about "The Freak". At only 26 years of age, Lincecum already has 2 Cy Young awards and 3 NL Strikeout crowns to his name. In short, he is the most dominant strikeout pitcher that the game has seen since Randy Johnson.

When looking at his career numbers, one could point to 2010 and say that Lincecum had a "down" year, in which he posted an ERA nearly a run more than his previous two seasons and failing to top the 260 K mark for the first time in 2 years. When a 3.43 ERA and 231 Ks are considered struggling, then you are looking at a player who is exceptionally special.

Even if Lincecum's numbers do regress from his brilliant 2008-2009 totals, at worst you are still looking at a top 5 SP who is going to carry your team with his impressive K numbers. If he stays healthy, Lincecum should once again be an absolute stud frontline SP for your squad and a 17 Win, 240 K, 3.10 ERA season with aspirations for a 3rd Cy Young award are in his future.

The Chump:

Ubaldo Jimenez: There is a certain amount of consideration that must be taken with this pick, just because it would have been far too easy to have picked Carlos Silva to be this year's dog starter. Please understand that I don't mean to suggest that Jimenez will be awful in 2011, just that there is a very real chance he fails to live up to the expectations that a incredible 2010 will likely bestow for him.

In fact, I think it is fair to simply look at the splits when trying to establish what sort of performance you should expect from Jimenez in 2011. Possessing a fantastic repertoire of pitches, he has fantastic swing and miss stuff and thus will likely be a solid bet to exceed the 200 K mark again. What troubles me with Jimenez is the sometimes erratic command of those pitches. Walking 92 batters last season, he missed tying Jonathan Sanchez for the league lead by a mere 4 BBs. Luckily, having the ability to strike out opposing hitters has helped to minimize the damage that the free passes might have caused, however, those periods of spotty command have the potential to blow up when combined with the friendly boost that Coors' Field bestows upon offensive players.

Overall Jimenez should still be looked upon as a solid #3 starter for fantasy teams due to the high K totals, but do not buy him high with the expectations of a repeat sub 3.00 ERA and 19 Wins that he posted in 2010. A far more realistic projection would probably lie somewhere near the totals he had in the 2nd half of the season and I'l project him to be a 15 Win, 210 K pitcher with an ERA hovering near 3.50 to finish the season.

Fantasy OF Analysis

Outfield

Simply put, there is no other position in fantasy baseball in 2011 that offers more power speed combinations than that of the outfielder position with 26 players posting double digit totals in both HR and SB categories. Among those 26, there were 6 whom posted 20+/20+ HR/SB ratios easily making it the strongly power/speed position in the draft.

Simply put, the 2011 Fantasy Outfielder crop is phenomenal. No other position offers the amount of cumulative star potential, depth, and potential breakout talent that you will find with this group.

Though Ryan Braun stands as the safest bet amongst your elite talents, the list of players who fill out the top tier of the OF are all remarkable in their floor projections as well as their potential. We saw in 2010 the sort of 5 category impact that a young player like Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Upton, and Andrew McCuthchen could have for fantasy owners. We also have extensive historical data available to suggest that the floor production for players like Carl Crawford, Matt Holliday, and Ichiro Suzuki continue to put them in the elite production category.

As well as the safe bets, you will also find a handful of bounce back candidates who could very well return to fantasy relevance. Once great fantasy studs like Carlos Beltran, Magglio Ordonez, and Grady Sizemore look to try to right their careers by finally staying healthy for a full season. Players like Johnny Damon, Andruw Jones, and Raul Ibanez will attempt to disprove those who say that their careers are in their twilight phases. There are certainly some very recognizable names amongst this group, many of whom could be very productive in 2011. However, no player of these characteristics quite have the upside that Manny Ramirez possesses. Battling injuries in 2010, Manny must prove that he still has the ability to be a top of the line run producer. Hitting in the heart of the Tampa Bay order will certainly provide him with the oppurtunities, but whether Manny still possesses the power that once made him such a dangerous weapon is yet to be seen. Regardless of which option you choose, proceed with caution as each has their own respective question marks surrounding their 2011 seasons.

As well as your all-around contributors, OF offers the most extensive selection of base pilfering specialists of any position. If you happen to nab a pair of power hitting IFs early in your draft and are lacking contributors to the SB categories, you'll find a wealth of options available from some of the best in the game in Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn to some of the lesser known speed demon youthful options in Brett Gardner, Drew Stubbs, Austin Jackson, and Denard Span. If you are the type to punt SBs in favor of HR and RBI early, then there are plenty of options available amongst the OFs to sufficiently balance out your team.

Though the list of established veterans found in the 2011 class are impressive, perhaps the truly intriguing aspect of the position can be found in the potential breakout candidates. In all my years as a fan I have yet to see a year when more young talent was poised to make their mark on the big leagues as there appears to be in 2011. We all know how great Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen can be, but you may want to get to know several other names very soon. While not household names, there is serious star potential to be found when looking at Mike Stanton, Dominic Brown, Colby Rasmus, Mike Trout, Dexter Fowler, and Desmond Jennings, to name a few. Each of these players has the potential to be big time contributors to their respective ball club by mid-season with some being fully primed to make their impact known on opening day. This class has the potential to generate a handful of All-Stars who each could find themselves in the upper tiers of fantasy OF rankings as soon as 2012. Though it would be a gamble, you could hit it big to pass on some of the higher ranked stars in lieu of solidifying other positions and taking some homerun swings on some of these young talents.

With the sheer amount of talent available in the 2011 OF pool, every team should be able to land a solid trio to insert into their starting lineup, however, keep an eye out on the young talent as their ascension into the elite tier could happen before your very eyes.

Break Out:

Jay Bruce: In a year where there are a wealth of young outfielders on the verge of stardom, Jay Bruce looks to make the kind of breakout impact that Carlos Gonzalez did a season ago. Blessed with incredible natural talent as well as a above average plate approach for his age, Bruce already boasts the kind of power stroke that General Managers drool over having posted more than 20 HRs in each of the 3 seasons of his young tenure.

Bruce's primary weakness during 2008-2009 were his struggles against LH pitchers, where he managed just a .562 and .643 OPS and a meager 5 HRs in nearly 250 ABs. Bruce adjusted in a huge way in 2010 and excelled against both LH and RH pitching equally and as a result had an incredible breakout, in which he posted career highs across the board.

At only 23 and with an incredibly high ceiling, Bruce is no where near growing as a player. Though a repeat of his 2010 numbers would still place him comfortable in the middle tiers of fantasy OFs in 2011, Bruce is the kind of budding star that can finish as a top 20 player if he reaches his potential. In a lineup with Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs, and 2010 MVP Joey Votto there will be plenty of opportunities to score and drive in runs. I'm predicting huge things for Bruce and projecting a .290/32/100 line and being in the discussion for NL MVP come year's end.

Bounce Back:

Nick Markakis: It's hard to say what went wrong for Markakis in 2010. Consistency has always been one of his most valuable assets and there are no real weaknesses in his plate approach. However, the most noticeable outlier from last season's stats would be his struggles against RH pitching. A career .299/.377/.854 hitter against RHs, in 2010 Markakis saw his line dip to an unusual .269/.351/.762 finish.

In addition to the odd 2010 splits vs. RHs, Markakis also saw his HR totals take a bit of a dive. Though HRs have never been his strongest attribute, Markakis should still be looked upon to hit 15-20 per season. Adding some key offensive pieces to the lineup in 2011 should help as well. The Orioles completely revamped their lineup by adding veterans Derek Lee, Mark Reynolds, JJ Hardy, as well as a suddenly reenergized Vlad Guerreo this offseason. If Baltimore can get Brian Roberts healthy as well as the 2nd half version of Adam Jones, then the Orioles could possess a surprisingly capable offensive unit in 2011 in which Markakis will find himself at the top of. Though one should not expect any sort of incredible breakthrough, Markakis should at least trend back to his career averages and a .300/20/100 season looks to be a very attainable projection.

The Champ:

Nelson Cruz: Always an immensely talented player, Cruz has finally started to translate his incredible raw talent into tangible on the field production. A legitimate 5 tool beast, Cruz has the ability to be one of the best players in all of baseball and showed it in 2010.

Coming over to Texas in the Carlos Lee trade, Cruz destroyed MiL pitching from day 1, but struggled mightily during extended stints at the ML level and was placed on waivers prior to the 2008 season. After destroying AAA pitching throughout most of the 2008 season, Cruz was finally given another shot for the big league club and excelled in limited ABs posting a 1.030 OPS to finish the season. From there Cruz has done nothing but perform when healthy, and health has been the only roadblock to him putting up an MVP caliber season.

Multiple hamstring injuries limited Cruz to only 400 ABs in 2010. Despite missing significant time, he still went on to post a .318/22/78 season with 17 SBs and a .950 OPS. In 2011, Cruz looks to finally stay healthy and produce those numbers over an entire season which would profile him as a legitimate threat to be one of the MLs only 30/30 players. Additionally, he'll be provided with a wealth of RBI opportunities hitting behind Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre and could finally break the 100RBI mark for the first time of his career.

Relying on Cruz to stay healthy is a risky proposition for certain, but I'm betting on him reaching 550 ABs and thus reaching a line of .290/35/100 with 25 SBs.

The Chump:

Vernon Wells: There are at times players who (despite having great careers) will channel their inner youth and have one final stellar year before returning to their regression trend of the previous few seasons. Though Wells is only 32 years old and still has plenty of years left to be a positive contributor in his future, production years like 2010 are likely nothing but distant memories from hereon out.

In 2010 Wells shocked the league and was one of the league's most dangerous power hitters in the 1st half of the season with 19 HRs and 49 RBI, finishing with 31 and 88 respectively. Though a quality offensive threat, Wells had experienced a quite significant regressive trend from 2007-2009 in which he only reached 20 HR once and failed to top 80 RBI in any of those seasons.

During the offseason, Wells was the primary piece in a big acquisition in which he was acquired by the Angels. Though its debatable which team had a better offense, chances are good that the Angels will be able to put plenty of base runners on the diamond when Wells is up to bat and a repeat of 80+ RBI is not too much of a stretch, but the historical evidence strongly suggest that Wells is highly unlikely to reach the 30 HR mark again in the foreseeable future. Wells certainly has the potential to be a useful 3rd OF, but anything more than a .280/20/80 season would be a bit too rosy a picture for my tastes.

Fantasy 3B Analysis

Third Base

No position has experienced a fall quite like the 3B position in Fantasy Baseball. What was once a position that rivaled 1B in power performance has now been replaced by an overall depth chart littered with fading stars with a mere handful of budding youngsters poised to fill their shoes. Despite this rather steep decline, there are still serviceable options at the hot corner capable of providing quality production for their team managers.

The head of the class closely resembles the hierarchy from the previous season. Evan Longoria continues to tear through ML pitching and once again is the leading candidate to earn the fantasy crown for Fantasy 3B in 2011. Longoria possesses a 3 year career line of .283/.361/.881 with 24 HRs and 100 RBI per season and should be a solid bet to repeat those numbers this season. Behind him you'd be splitting hairs debating the two New York 3B in David Wright and Alex Rodriguez. Though both possess their own respective red flags, both should comfortably be looked upon to provide top 50 production and a solid overall 5 category line. Just finishing out the upper tier of 3B is a perennially under appreciated star in Ryan Zimmerman. A career .288/.355/.839 hitter with good power numbers year in and year out, the primary factors that keep Zimmerman from being a Fantasy Star is a combination of poor lineup protection and virtually no contribution in the SB category. Having just turned 26, the potential for Zimmerman to improve still exists, but at worse he should continue to put up numbers similar to his career averages.

As one moves further down the list is where we start to find the real question marks. There are numerous well known names to be found in this tier with names like Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, Mark Reynolds, Casey McGehee and more, but each admittedly have legitimate question marks surrounding their projections for 2011. The biggest though perhaps surrounds Jose Bautista and Aramis Ramirez and whether they will repeat their performance from the previous season, one good and one terribly bad.

Call me cynical, but 30 year old players who best their career high in HRs by 38 are not good bets to repeat said performance. Bautista had never topped 16 dingers in a season over 1700 career ABs, yet suddenly and without notice goes off to nail 54 and lead the MLs in HRs besting future HoF Albert Pujols by a healthy 12 HR margin. Don't get me wrong, I am not suggesting there aren't things to like about Bautista. I don't think a player is capable of hitting 50+ HRs in a season without having a legitimate power stroke (or weekly injections of Javy Lopez blood) and Bautista certainly will get every opportunity in regards to playing time in 2011.

Then on the other end of the spectrum you find Ramirez. Posting the worst line of his career since his long forgotten 2002 season, Ramirez could never find any sort of consistency in 2010 and really the only bright spot of his end season numbers were the 25 HRs he posted thanks in no small part to a nice 2nd half resurgence. Historically a lock for a .280/25/90 season, the .276/.321/.847 with 15HR and 50 RBI give hopes to a solid rebound in 2011, but injury concerns and regression due to age could very well begin what could be a steep decline in offensive numbers over the next few seasons. If you miss out on some of the safer options, Ramirez should at least be a solid consolation prize with upside to bounce back in a big way, though a .280/20/80 line might be a more realistic projection going forward.

Proceed with caution beyond this point as the list of options begins to dwindle very quickly. There are a few young hot corner candidates who may be primed for breakout years in Pedro Alvarez, Ian Steward, and David Freese, but my advice would be to let the less risk adverse owners be the ones who take that gamble. The best strategy when deciding upon a starting 3B for your squad would be a conservative approach and targeting the safer options as depth at the position deteriorates quickly.

Break Out:

Pedro Alvarez: No young 3B is more poised to have a breakout year than potential stud Pedro Alvarez. Since being drafted by the Pirates, Alvarez has quickly ascended the levels to find himself in the big leagues after only a year and a half in the minor leagues. After beginning the first part of the 2010 season at AAA Indianapolis, he posted a .277/.363/.896 line that earned him a callup to the big leagues. Though he struggled in his first full month, he flashed serious power potential belting 7 HRs in June and then finishing strong in the final month of the season in which he posted a mouth watering .306/.355/.932 line with 6 HR and an incredible 27 RBI.

Possessing a legitimate 30 HR stroke, Alvarez should pay dividends in the power department right off the bat. His biggest downfall is his inability to hit lefties, which is a familiar struggle for many a young LH bats. Chances are strong that Alvarez will get every opportunity to sink or swim against all but the toughest LH pitchers in 2011, so if he can even show a miniscule improvement in his overall approach against them, he could catapult himself into the cusp of the upper tiered 3B options for years to come. I'm going bold on Alvarez and predicting a .280/25/85 line from the young slugger.

Bounce Back:

Mark Reynolds: Many predicted that Mark Reynolds would experience a serious regression in 2010 after posting ridiculous numbers in a 2009 season which saw him belt 44 HR while also chipping in 24 SBs. Those are the kind of ratios that earn players top 5 pick status and it was no surprise when he failed to achieve those marks again in 2010.

Though a regression wasn't surprising, the extent of his decline was. Reynolds will always be a candidate to break his own record for strikeouts in a single season and defines the term "free swinger". However, while the strikeouts will likely prevent him from ever be a contender for a batting title, his finish below the mendoza line in 2010 is a bit of an aberration and there is no denying that the power he possesses is very real and his BB totals are actually quite solid. Moving to the Orioles in 2011, the lineup should at least be on par with the Diamondbacks and the move to the offense friendly AL could actually benefit him. Though I question his ability to ever come close to matching his incredible 2009 season, I would feel comfortable slotting him in at a .260/30/90 line with double digit steal totals, making him a quality option in an overall depth challenged 3B class.

The Champ:

Evan Longoria: Though it seems obvoius to select the consensus top ranked 3B in the fantasy realm and project him to be the fantasy king in 2011, I do so with lofty expectations. Few will argue that Longoria is a special talent. Breaking into the big leagues at 22, Longoria immediate became a formidable threat at the plate by belting 27 HR and an .874 OPS in his inaugural season earning him rookie of the year honors. Since then, he has remained quite consistent in his overall approach despite some fluctuation in his HR totals posting a .889 and .879 OPS in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

Entering into his age 25 season, Longoria is finally entering what is generally perceived to be his physical prime and with his overall approach the potential for a boost in power numbers is very real. Despite losing the luxury of hitting with Carl Crawford and a sometimes useful Carlos Pena, the Rays should still possess a formidable offensive unit with the additions of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. With RBI opportunities remaining solid and sufficient lineup protection offered by Ramirez, Longoria should at a minimum match his 2010 line, however, I am very bullish on his skill set and project that he escalates himself into one of the truly elite hitters in the MLs in 2011. Perhaps a bit optimistic, I project Longoria to boast a more than healthy .290/35/120 line and being a top contender for the MVP award in the upcoming season.

The Chump:

Adrian Beltre: Many nasty things have been said when discussing Adrian Beltre's offensive capabilities. An abundance of baseball fans want to label him the classic contract year player and clearly his 2004 season is exhibit A of that discussion. However, what many miss is that Beltre is about as consistent an offensive player as there is at 3B, which is a good but not great offensive talent.

Beltre has belted 20+ HR in all but 4 of his 12 ML seasons since becoming a full-time player. The problem with Beltre is that some will be drafting him in 2011 expecting a repeat of his incredible 2010 totals in which he had an MVP caliber All-Star season and managed a .321/28/102 line for the Boston Red Sox, the 2nd best of his career in each respective category. Though an argument could be and have been made that moving out of Safeco was the largest proponent to his sudden spike, one simply cannot ignore his career totals and expect him to have suddenly transformed himself into one of the game's elite hitters. In the end, I believe that his 2011 season will fall almost right in step with that of his historical means and a .275/25/85 season seems a pretty solid bet, which will likely disappoint those who draft him with a high pick.

Fantasy SS Analysis

Short Stop

To suggest that the SS position is lacking in talent would be analyzing the 2011 crop with an overly sunny disposition, at best. Competing with the C position as the only group that looks to offer less across the board in regards to production, this year's class looks to offer just a couple of elite talents, followed by a group of solid veteran options, and then a wealth of 1-2 category contributors who are severely lacking in other areas.

Sitting firmly at the head of the class are Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki. Both are very good 5 category contributors and both are solid bets to repeat their elite production levels. Really the primary characterstic that separates the two is that Han-Ram has a history of stealing more bases whilst Tulowitzki has driven in more runs. They should put up a quite similar line in Runs, BA, and even HR and both should easily finish among the top 50 overall players, battling all season long for the rights to the Fantasy SS crown. With the position being as scarce as it is, if you are presented the opportunity to draft one of these two, do so with confidence.

Immediately following the elite duo we find some very familiar names who look to be solid contributors in 2011, albeit not the 5 category kings that their 1st tier counterparts look to offer. Truth be told, your choice between Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, and Jose Reyes will likely be based upon what particular stat you are chasing. Reyes and Rollins surprisingly profile very similarly. Neither are going to kill your BA but certainly won't impact it in a positive manner. Also, Rollins offers more pop while Reyes has a much higher potential to rack up a wealth of SBs. Jeter is a safer play if you are looking for solid contributions across the board. Though last season was a bit of a down year, especially regarding his BA, Jeter is still a much better overall hitter than his 2010 season stats would suggest and thus should at worst be the projected floor of his production hitting atop what looks to once again be a very good NY Yankees lineup.

Beyond this point there are many more question marks than safe bets. Alexei Ramirez, Stephen Drew, and Rafael Furcal each possess the potential to be positive contributors, but inconsistency, a poor lineup, and health concerns raise red flags upon each candidate respectively. Ramirez likely has the most upside of this group as a guy who possesses the talent to post a 20/20 season, but chances are that he is what he is at this point. Hitting at the top of the White Sox lineup should provide him with plenty of opportunities to run and to score runs whilst also providing solid HR and RBI numbers.

The 2011 class also on the surface looks to lack any significant depth, however, there are a handful of young players who could look to make an impact given the full-time opportunity. Players such as Elvis Andrus, Ian Desmond, Alcides Escobar and Starlin Castro look to make a name for themselves, but none really project to be impact bats and will contribute more with their speed on the base paths than in overall power numbers. Though if you miss out on the veteran options and want to take a gamble, each offer interesting upside.

Perhaps the best strategy to employ when selecting a SS in 2011 is just to select a player who offers a skill that fits with your overall roster. Chances are solid that whatever SS you end up will offer potential double digit SB totals so if you are able to land a player who also offers positive contributions in another category or 2, then you will have done well.

Break Out:

Starlin Castro: Young players who aren't completely overwhelmed at the ML level are impressive. 20 year olds who hit .300 during their inaugural season are potentially special. Many were surprised that Castro even got the call up at such a young age, but from the word go he shattered everyone's expectations and never hit the slump that everyone expected him to undergo. Posting solid splits vs. RH and LH as well as a solid doubles stroke (31 in only 463 ABs) Castro should be a good bet to improve upon his Run totals hitting atop the potent Cubs lineup. Castro should also improve upon his SB totals as he gains experience.

While not much of a power threat and still a little green on the base paths, any expectations of a immense breakout season should be tempered a bit as he still has a lot of room to grow physically and opposing pitchers will now have plenty of tape to try to find some weaknesses in his game which could result in a slight dip in his BA. However, when SS is so devoid of depth overall, a player who is capable of providing solid contributions in both BA and SB while posting solid Run totals should provide plenty of value. I'd be comfortable projecting a .280/5/50 season with 80+ Runs and around 15 SBs. If you miss out on the safer veteran options, I strongly endorse targeting Castro as your plan B.

Bounce Back:

Jimmy Rollins: It's hard to really know type of production you are going to get from Jimmy Rollins on a year to year basis. The early glimpses of a stud 5 category SS we witnessed in the beginning stages of his career seem to be long gone, but that doesn't mean that Rollins cannot still contribute to your fantasy team. Hitting leadoff in what certainly projects to be a very good Phillies' lineup, Rollins should once again rack up quality numbers in Runs and SBs, but the question year in and year out revolves around what he produces in BA and HR.

Throughout his career Rollins has experienced quite extreme peaks and valleys revolving around his BA ranging from a high of .296 in an MVP caliber 2006 season to a head-scratching .243 in an injury played 2010. I think a safe median would suggest that he is probably a .275 hitter with decent splits against both LH and RH, but again he has been such an enigma during his career that he could certainly surprise one way or another.

His power numbers have been equally hard to predict throughout his career. It is safe to say that Rollins possesses very good pop as he racks up the 2Bs yearly, but the issue always becomes how many of those 2Bs ultimately leave the park since most leagues don't tally 2Bs in their scoring settings. I wouldn't even bet on Rollins reaching his career high 30 HR mark ever again, but he is absolutely capable of posting 20 HR. While I am optimistic overall on his 2011 season, I think his bounce back will be good but ultimately limited. I'd project him to pst a .265/16/70 line in 2011 while giving owners a minimum of 30 SBs. Draft with confidence.

The Champ:

Troy Tulowitzki: The only thing holding Tulowitzki back from being one of the top producers in the entire MLs regardless of position is health. Injuries have significantly limited the Rockies' SS in 2 of the last 4 seasons. However, despite missing time he still somehow manages to put up great numbers. Even after logging a month of the 2010 season on the DL, he still bested Han-Ram in 2B, HR, RBI, and Total Bases despite logging nearly 100 less ABs. In fact he was even stronger after the injury than before posting a .938 OPS in August and simply ridiculous 1.120 OPS in September.

At 26, Tulowitzki is a legitimate .300 hitter with terrific power and is just entering the prime of his career. Realistically at this point his yearly averages should serve merely as his production floor and could even improve if he is ever able to improve his production on the road (.790 OPS on the road vs. .926 at home). He also is hitting in one of the league's most hitter friendly park and is firmly penciled in behind emerging star Carlos Gonzalez in what should be an overall solid Colorado Rockies lineup and thus should have little trouble once again putting up elite offensive numbers. Obviously one must always be cognizant of the injury concerns that surround Tulowitzki, but even if he misses a few games, he should still eclipse all other contenders in production and is a legitimate bet to log .300/30/90 from a paper thin 2011 SS class.

The Chump:

Juan Uribe: At 31 Uribe spent the majority of the 2010 season at SS in addition to being the Giants' most versatile utility player. Posting career highs in both HR and RBI he was surprisingly one of the biggest contributors in an otherwise weak San Francisco lineup and was 2nd to only Aubrey Huff in both catergories. While the power wasn't a complete surprise as Uribe is easily a perennial threat to best the 15 HR mark, it would be a mistake to rely upon him repeating the 24 that he produced last season. It is also difficult to get too excited about the HR totals when he is such a burden upon your .BA/.OBP (.256/.300 career) and does absolutely nothing to contribute in steals at a position where SBs are overall abundant.

Entering 2011 Uribe looks to start in what should be a solid LA Dodgers offensive unit and will remain eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS making him one of the best versatile infielder options in Fantasy Baseball. If you happen to miss out on all the upper tiered SS options, then Uribe can be a bearable starting option, however, proceed with caution when selecting Uribe as you don't want to make the mistake of paying for last year's stats. I'd project a .250/15/60 line from Uribe.

Fantasy 2B Analysis

Second Base

The 2B position has really transformed from that of a source for light-hitting base-stealers to a legitimate power position. What used to be a quite top-heavy positional hierarchy has been supplanted instead with what is actually a quite deep pool of fantasy contributors. Additionally the 2B position has candidates who offer quite a vast array of different skill-sets ranging from your HR launching Dan Uggla to your speed-demon base terrorizing Chone Figgins.

The 2B position also offers a handful of multi-faceted power/speed threats with roughly 5-10 players offering potential double digit totals in HRs and SBs. This class is headlined by perennial fantasy elite names such as Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, and Rickie Weeks.

Top billing of the 2011 class should remain the usual cast. Chase Utley was limited by injuries in 2010, but shouldn't be a big concern as he posted a monstrous September hitting .323 and posting a .967 OPS. While his career has been steadily trending downward since his incredible 2007 season, he still looks capable of putting up a more than healthy .285/30/100 line with 10+ SBs, putting him comfortably in the top tier of the 2B pool of players.

Competing with Utley will be Yankee budding star and 2010 breakout player Robinson Cano. The book on Cano has always been consistent. He is a player who will provide plus contributions in batting average combined with the rewards in Runs and RBI totals that hitting in the Yankee lineup provide. In 2010 he added a sudden surge of power that, while unexpected, doesn't look to be a fluke. Cano has always been a doubles machine averaging 40 per season since his inaugural 2005 campaign. One could argue that he really broke out in 2009 when he hit a then career high 25 HRs and posted a .871 OPS, but made the leap to ML stardom in 2010 posting an MVP like 29 HRs and a .914 OPS. He is as safe a bet as there is and his 2009 numbers should be considered his floor at this point.

In the 2nd tier you will find a wealth of quality options. Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, all look to bounce back from an injury plagued 2010 while Rickie Weeks looks to solidify his place at this level. Approach each with caution as Pedroia's ankle injury could serious limit his bas stealing threat and Kinsler and Weeks are both always a solid bet to miss an extended amount of time on the DL. When they do play each are capable of rewarding fantasy owners with double digit HR and SB numbers, so adjust your expectations accordingly.

The class becomes a bit murky when analyzing the list of players that have had quality seasons in the past but failed to live up to their expected production in 2010. Players like Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, Aaron Hill, and Ben Zobrist fill up this group as they all managed to miss their projected totals by a wide margin last season. Each carry very real question marks entering 2011 as to whether they can bounce back to their former stature or not. Roberts and Figgins must battle father time, while Hill and Zobrist must make adjustments to their respective approaches to increase their efficiency at the plate. These question marks make for interesting risk/reward selections and could provide quality production if you happen to miss out on the upper echelon talents. Despite being a class that lacks an abundance of low risk options, as a whole this year's 2B class looks to be surprisingly deep and should provide owners with good across the board production in 2011.

Breakout:

Gordon Beckham: The hype machine ran at maximum capacity entering the 2010 season. Beckham killed minor league pitching and held his own throughout his ML stint in the 2009 season, so expectations were high that a significant improvement was in order entering 2010, potentially even placing him amongst the fantasy elite. The expectations (combined with a position switch to 2B) were just too much though. Beckham was completely overmatched the first 3 months of the season and looked as if he might need a refresher stint back at AAA. However, the White Sox stuck with him and were rewarded with a huge July and August from Beckham in which he posted a .950 and .931 OPS respectively.

The midseason breakout is encouraging, but the caveat remains for potential owners to temper their expectations again in 2011. Chances are that Beckham will continue to experience periods where he flashes the All-Star hitting potential that he possesses, but those will be mixed with periods of struggle as he has to adjust to ML pitching. If Beckham ever hopes to become a fantasy elite 2B, the strikeout numbers will have to decrease and the BBs will need to trend upward. However, if you are the type that appreciates a good gamble, Beckham is certainly a very strong risk/reward candidate. I'm predicting a mini-breakout to the tune of .280/20/80, with the potential for more.

Bounce Back:

Aaron Hill: The list of potential 2B bounce back candidates was quite plentiful. However, when measuring 2010 Performance vs. 2011 Projection, the biggest gap in my mind lies with Aaron Hill. Overall, Hill had a completely miserable 2010 season. Hitting in what proved to be a high octane Toronto lineup, one could easily have projected that Hill would only benefit from the protection that his fellow teammates provided. Yet, somehow, Hill just never could get on track. Though he managed to hit 28 HRs in 2010, he only managed to hit over .200 in 2 months the entire season and eclipsed the .700 OPS mark once.

A career .270 hitter with legitimate 25+ HR power, the steep decline was a shocker amongst the majority of the fantasy community. Though he should never been considered a threat to post a .300 BA over the course of a season, he certainly shouldn't be reduced to a guy who struggles to hit above the mendoza line. I would estimate a resurgence more closely resembling his career .270 mark whilst also being fully capable of maintaining the HR stroke in 2011. A projected line of .270/23/85 would place him back into the ranks that he formerly occupied.

The Champ:

Dan Uggla: I almost can't believe I am writing this. Since his 2006 rookie season in which Uggla seemingly came from nowhere to hit 27 HRs and 90 RBI, Uggla has been the most prolific power threat at 2B in the MLs topping 31 HR in every following season (Uggla never topped 21 HRs at AA or AAA during his MiL career). I admit I was never a believer, as I awaited the low BA and high K numbers to eventually catch up to him and result in a career of mediocrity. Trust is, if one looks closer at his season by season trends you will find that Uggla as an overall hitter has improved while maintaining the power stroke that has solidified his reputation as one of the games most under appreciated power threats.

For Uggla, 2011 looks incredibly bright. The move from Florida to Atlanta places him in a better ball park, a better lineup, and a much more favorable competitive atmosphere. At worst Uggla looks to remain a lock to repeat a line similar to his historical average, but I am going even further with it and predicting an increase in his overall line. Put me down for Uggla reaching .280/35/100 this season and entering into the top tier of Fantasy 2B in future years.

The Chump:

Rickie Weeks: A part of me think that they only reason Weeks broke out in 2010 the way that he did was only so that he could let his supporters down again in 2011. For years Weeks teased owners with an incredible amount of fantasy 5 category potential that hinted at him becoming a perennial 25HR and 25SB beast, and each year he struggled to make the kind of impact that his supporters had hoped for.

After an injury shortened 2009 that saw him only appear in 37 games, his bandwagon was becoming quite desolate. He responded by having a career year and increasing his HR and RBI totals by nearly double his previous career highs. The secret to this sudden boost is likely attributed to the fact that he logged nearly 200 more at bats than any other season before. My analysis is not to suggest that he does not possess the talent to repeat this performance, but rather that his ability to stay healthy for an entire season is highly unlikely and thus his overall totals will suffer as a result. If you have a quality reserve that you are comfortable inserting when Weeks spends time on the DL then you may target him and play him when healthy, but I see a regression back a .260/17/60 player that will undoubtedly break the hearts of those who spend a high selection on him.